Hump Day Horse Racing! Garrity picks the cards at Fonner Park, Will Rogers Downs, and Tampa Bay Downs
Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs, God bless ‘em, are running again today, and Tampa Bay Downs is racing as well. We will focus primarily on the races in Florida, but we’ll play a race each at Fonner and Will Rogers. The weather at all three should be good this afternoon, so we’re handicapping for fast and firm. Let’s go.
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 4, 2:00 pm ET
$10,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, FIllies & Mares 4 & Up
A full field of ten older females will go to the starting gate for the 4th at Tampa, a $10,000 claimer at a flat mile on the grass. We like a filly at a price here, 7-Caspian Tale, a 4-year-old Florida-bred whose last three starts have been on dirt. She won two of them, and while she switches to grass today, there are two things about the surface change that we like: one is that she has won on turf before, and the second is that she has done her best grass running coming from off the pace. That’s a fit here, we think, as the pace in this race looks to us like it will be fast, especially for horses at this lower claiming level. Look for quick fractions up front, and for Caspian Tale to run them all down late. We’ll bet her to win at 8-1. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 4, $20 to win on 7-Caspian Tale.
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 7, 3:30 pm ET
Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds
This maiden sprint on the dirt was popular at the entry box, as it drew 13 entrants, most of them lightly raced. We like a second-time starter, 7-Sense of Justice: he’s a well-bred colt, by top sire Street Sense and out of a Bernardini mare, and he evidently looks like a runner, as he sold for $350,000 as a yearling in 2018. His one start was decent, a third at a maiden race at Parx, but it was also a long time ago, in July, and we are expecting a big move forward today.
Sense of Justice is trained by Michael Stidham, which is important, because Stidham is good at two things this colt will be doing today: making his second career start and returning from a layoff of more than six months. Stidham wins at 26% and 24% rates, respectively, in these spots. Sense of Justice showed speed in his career debut at Parx, and we expect him to be forwardly placed today as well. We also expect him to get his picture taken in the winner’s circle. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, $30 to win on 7-Sense of Justice.
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, 4:00 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 3-Year-Olds
This is a very, very tough allowance/optional claiming turf route for 3-year-olds. There are ten colts entered, but we think it’s essentially a match race between 2-1 morning line favorite 6-Our Country and 9/2 second choice 2-Bitcoin Passion. It’s an extremely fascinating matchup that is an unexpected delight on a Wednesday afternoon card.
Our Country is favored because he has glittering credentials: he broke his maiden at Saratoga in August, and then raced in three straight graded stakes races, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished ninth, but only two and a half lengths behind the winner.
We will try to be brief here: we love Bitcoin Passion in this spot. He has run only once, in a maiden race on January 19 at Tampa Bay, and while the fact that he won his career debut is good, the way he won is far more important: he was as green as an arugula salad that day, tossing his head repeatedly down the stretch, but as soon as jockey Antonio Gallardo got his nose pointed forward, he accelerated immediately, passing the horses in front of him with a very impressive turn of foot. He’s by American Pharaoh, the hottest young stallion around, and we think this colt has a world of potential, partly because of his breeding, but mostly because of how impressive visually he was last time. With Our Country likely to take a lot of betting action at the windows -- horses coming out of Breeders Cup races always get bet -- we think this is going to be a terrific opportunity to get a good price on a horse who looks like he might be something special. We think Bitcoin Passion is a better horse than the favorite, and we will bet him to win. And we will do so enthusiastically and aggressively. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, $75 to win on 2-Bitcoin Passion.
Fonner Park, Race 3, 5:54 pm ET
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Nebraska-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
The results at Fonner Park have been very true to form this week, with favorites winning at a very high rate. We hope that trend continues, because we think 2-Possibly in Love, the favorite in this state-bred allowance, looks to us to be by far the likeliest winner. The 4-year-old filly’s odds on the morning line are 5/2, and if we thought we could get that price, we might suggest a big play, but the line looks bad to us, and we’re thinking she is going to be much shorter, more like even money, at post time. We will still bet her, but not quite so aggressively. We will bet her to win. The bet: Fonner Park, Race 3, $40 to win on 2-Possibly in Love.
Will Rogers Race 9, 6:15 pm ET
Starter Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
Ten go in this mile race on the Will Rogers dirt. We found this easy to handicap: 7-L.A. Tower has good figures, and razor-sharp form, and enough early speed to avoid traffic trouble. We very much doubt that we’ll get his 9/2 morning line price, but we think he’s a good bet even at slightly lesser odds. Look for him to be forwardly placed, to take the lead at the top of the stretch and hold off the closers late. We will bet him to win. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 9, $30 to win on 7-L.A. Tower.