Bet the horses: Garrity picks the races at Oaklawn Park
We are going to head today to Oaklawn Park, where we’re pretty confident that the races scheduled for this after will actually be run. We’re going to look at the entire card, making a couple of single-race plays, and a couple of multi-race bets. Rain moved through Arkansas yesterday afternoon, causing the latter races on Oaklawn’s Saturday card to be run on a sloppy, sealed track. The rain ended just after the last race, however, and that should be enough time for the track to dry out. We are therefore expecting a fast track in Hot Springs today. First post is at 2:30 Eastern time; let’s go.
Oaklawn Park, Race 2, 3:02 pm ET
$16,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Arkansas-breds 3 & Up
We like a price here: 4-Broken Together is 4-year-old colt who is winless in four career starts, but two of them were on grass, and in his two dirt races, he did not embarrass himself, finishing third last July at Canterbury Park, and second last out in a $10k state-bred maiden claimer at Oaklawn. Trainer Robert Cline jumps her from $10k to $16k off that effort, and that is a sign of aggressiveness that we like. The speed figure he earned in his last race makes him competitive here, and he possesses enough early speed to stay close to what should be a pretty robust early pace. He also gets a 7-pound break in the weights due to the presence of jockey Kelsi Harr, an apprentice who has impressed us with her ability at the current Oaklawn meeting. At 12-1, Broken Together is worth a play. We will bet him to win and to place. The bets: Oaklawn Park, Race 2, $15 to win/$10 to place on 4-Broken Together.
Oaklawn Park, Race 5, 4:48 pm ET
$16,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
This claiming sprint drew a full field of twelve, and the pick is the horse all the way on the outside, 12-His Giant. He’s a 4-year-old colt trained by Tom Amoss who has run three consecutive good races, which suggests that he is fit and ready to run (and at this level, identifying horses who are sound is at least half the battle in finding a winner). He has a pace-pressing style that works perfectly with his outside post, and we like the fact that jockey Joe Talamo, who rode him in his last two races, rides back today. He just missed at this level last out, finishing second; we think His Giant will not miss today. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 5, $35 to win on 12-His Giant.
Oaklawn Park, Race 6, 5:10 pm ET
$30,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
Oaklawn Park, Race 7, 5:10 pm ET
$30,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Race 6 at Oaklawn looks easy: 5-Wicked Indeed, who starts for trainer Steve Asmussen, has superior speed figures to the rest of the field, and drops slightly in class after finishing a close 4th in a $40k claimer. He is overwhelmingly the likeliest winner, but at 7/5, we think he offers better value in a multi-race wager than with a win bet.
In race 7, we like another Asmussen runner, 3-Drop Dead Gorgeous. This 4-year-old filly is winless in 13 career starts, which is not good, but she’s making only her third start for Asmussen, who claimed her for $25,000 two races back. Asmussen jumped her in class, to $40k, off the claim, where she ran a deceptively good fourth, but now she drops back to $30k, and we think she fits here. We expect a good effort from her, and a trip to the winner’s circle. Drop Dead Gorgeous is 5-1 on the morning line.
We will combine these two picks in the double comprising Races 6 and 7. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 6, $30 double, 5 (Wicked Indeed) with 3 (Drop Dead Gorgeous).
Oaklawn Park, Race 8, 6:12 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, 4 & Up
Oaklawn Park, Race 8, 6:43 pm ET
Allowance, 5 1/2 furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
The 8th is a very tough allowance/optional claimer, with a pretty salty group of ten older horses. Our pick is 2-Awesome Anywhere, a 6-year-old gelding trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
Over the winter, Hollendorfer moved his operations to Arkansas from California, where he enjoyed great success for decades, particularly on the Bay Area circuit. He got off to a slow start in his new environs but has had better results recently. The guy has over 7,000 wins in his training career, so he obviously knows what he’s doing, and Awesome Anywhere is in excellent form, having won a starter allowance race on March 1 in his last start. He earned an excellent speed figure in that race, but the effort was even better than it looks on paper, as he set a very fast pace and was still able to outfinish the come-from-behinders.
We think Awesome Anywhere is sitting on a big race, and at 3-1, he is a good play. We will bet him to win, and we will also play him in the Double covering Races 8 and 9: we’ll pair him with 11-Strike That in the 9th, who has a significant speed-figure edge, and who figures to win at a short price. The bets: Oaklawn Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 2-Awesome Anywhere; $35 double, 2-Awesome Anywhere) with 11 (Strike That).
That’s all for today. Enjoy the racing, stay safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.