Belvoir Bay races at Santa Anita Park
Belvoir Bay races at Santa Anita ParkSanta Anita Park

Garrity picks the Friday horses at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita

Today is a Friday, and it is also the day before the Florida Derby. We expect fast dirt and firm turf at all four tracks — let's go!

Today is a Friday, and it is also the day before the Florida Derby. This would normally be a day of great anticipation, as the Florida Derby looks like the best Derby prep of the year, and the undercard at Gulfstream Park tomorrow is sensational. We would normally be very excited to dive into handicapping all of it. Instead, we have a dull feeling of uneasiness, partly because we feel that the sport is going to shut down completely, possibly very soon, but mostly over what is going to happen in the real world over the next few months. These are unusual and trying times.

What do we do in times of uncertainty? This morning, as the sun came up, we opened the pages of the Daily Racing Form: there are races at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita. We will play a race or two at each, for while that will not solve the great problem the world is facing now, it will at least provide a distraction for a few hours this afternoon. We expect fast dirt and firm turf at all four tracks; let's go.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6, 3:21 pm ET

$16,000 Claiming, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

This conditioned claimer drew a full field of ten. 1-Vaunt is a strong play: this mare has obviously had some physical problems, as she's made only two career starts at 5 years old, but when she has been able to run, she's done quite well: she broke her maiden at first asking last April, then finished a decent second in a claiming race two weeks ago. She burned a lot of money that day, failing to win at 1/2 odds, but we think she probably needed that race, and should improve today. She gets the tactical advantage of the rail post, which should ensure a ground-saving trip, and while she probably doesn't need an edge on the other runners, it does make her by far the most likely winner. She is 5/2 on the morning line and will almost certainly be lower at post time; we will bet her to win anyway. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 6, $35 to win on 1-Vaunt.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, 4:26 pm ET

Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

This maiden race for female turf routers drew a good field of nine. It's a pretty good group, and a fascinating race to handicap.

We like 4-Gesture. This is a very intriguing 3-year-old filly who starts for Jonathan Thomas. She fits a pet angle of ours: she comes from a relatively low-profile stallion, Tapiture, who stands for a $7,500 stud fee. Yet she was impressive enough physically that she sold for $240,000 a year ago at the March 2019 Ocala sale down in Florida. When a horse sells for many multiples of its stallion's stud fee, they usually look like runners, and they sometimes can actually be runners. We think that may be the case with Gesture.

There are a few more things about her that we like: she's going from dirt to turf; she's going from a sprint to a route; and she's making the second start of her career, and Thomas hits at a very high 34% rate with second-time starters. She's also has been working well in the mornings, and we think she is very live in here. We will bet her to win at 6-1. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 9, $30 to win on 4-Gesture.

Gulfstream Park, Race 9, 5:12 pm ET

Allowance, 1 mile, Dirt, 3-Year-Olds

This is a first-level allowance for 3-year-olds, and it's a deep and competitive group, with 12 sophomore colts going to the starting gate. Our pick is 4-Ournationonparade, who starts for trainer Kathy Ritvo. He was precocious as a juvenile, winning both of his starts at Laurel Park last fall, and then came off a layoff to finish a very close third in the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park on February 29. We think he should improve second off the bench, and that makes him dangerous here. Another asset is his versatility: he has high speed, and may get the early lead, but he can also win by stalking the pace. Either way, we think he's headed to the winner's circle, and will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 9, $30 to win on 4-Ournationonparade.

Gulfstream Park, Race 10, 5:43 pm ET

Allowance, 1 1/8 miles, Turf, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

This is another allowance on the grass, and another big field, with nine older females entered.

The rails on the Gulfstream turf course are way out, at 120 feet, presumably to protect the inner part of the turf course for the big day tomorrow, which features several important grass stakes. At the current Gulfstream meeting, when the rails have been out this far, speed has been golden, as the course is laid out in a way that the stretch is very short, and it's consequently hard for horses to come from behind in a race’s later stages.

The mare on the outside, 9-Silver Kitten, has a massive early-pace edge on the rest of the field, and is coming out of a race in which she ran pretty heroically, setting a very quick pace in a Grade 3 race, and still holding on for second. She's probably be a strong pick on a fair racing surface, but on one favoring speed, she's pretty close to an empty-your-pockets win play: she's the best horse, and her early speed is going to give her a huge edge over the rest of the field, which will be spinning their wheels trying to catch up to her in the last couple of furlongs. The object of this game is to find the best horse; when you think you've found the best horse, and the way the race will be run will favor her, there's only one thing to do, and that is to bet aggressively. We will not get her 5/2 morning line price -- she'll be shorter at post time -- but we will bet her to win anyway. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $75 to win on 9-Silver Kitten.

Oaklawn Park, Race 8, 5:51 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

Eleven older females go in this dirt sprint in Arkansas. Trainer Robertino Diodoro has had an incredibly successful meet at Oaklawn, winning with 30% of his starters, a number that is even more impressive when one considers that in many races, he has run multiple starters. He does so here, and we like one of them, 9-Wholehearted. She's a 6-year-old mare Diodoro claimed for $25,000 three starts back; since then, she's run two good races in a row. We think she will make it three today, and that should put her in the winner's circle. Look for her to get a good stalking trip from her outside post, and to take command down the stretch. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 8, $25 to win on 9-Wholehearted.

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 7:39 pm ET

Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, 3 & Up

For a nightcap, we'll play the last race of the day at Santa Anita in Southern California. It's a maiden race at a flat mile on the turf, and it drew a field of nine.

We like 7-Capital Call, who starts for Hall of Fame trainer Neil Drysdale. He's a well-bred 3-year-old colt, by Tonalist out of a Proud Citizen mare, and though he's not been especially competitive in his three career starts, Drysdale is making a couple of changes we like: Capital Call is cutting back from a mile and an eighth to mile, and the blinkers are coming off. Drysdale takes his time with horses, doesn't rush them, and the changes, plus Capital Call's recent morning workout, which was very fast, suggest to us that he's ready to fire today. At 6-1, we're ready to back him with a play. We'll bet him to win. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 8, $30 to win on 7-Capital Call.

That's all for today. We'll be back tomorrow, for the Florida Derby, and the terrific stakes races on the Gulfstream Park undercard. Until then, be safe, enjoy the racing, and, as always, good luck at the windows.

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