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The $400K G2 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
Many years ago, I went to the track with a very famous trainer's son. He opened the form and explained to me that some horses run in patterns and you can determine bounce patterns. In some cases, you can determine when a horse was due to bounce in a negative fashion and others, a positive.
Fast forward to last Sunday, March 1. In Laurel’s 3rd race, a horse named Bandolini had run Equibase numbers of, from last to first, 70, 7, 67, 18. I was sitting at the OTB in Timonium and I told the guy next to me that the juicy 4-1 price on that horse was too good to pass up because he’s poised to bounce into a good race. Sure enough, he ran away with it by over five lengths.
In todays’ Tampa Derby, both favorites are pointing to a negative bounce pattern.
Sole Volante – 88, 109, 98, 108 ______?
Chance It – 75, 110, 97, 102, 92, 102, ______?
Both have up down, up down patterns with both coming into today heading to a down pattern.
Meanwhile, Market Analysis nailed a 94 Equibase figure on its first, and only, race and quality horses such as this will make a big step forward in their second time out. That is my selection for not only those reasons, but I think Pletcher and Velazquez wouldn’t be in this race as a tandem unless they new they had a fighter.
The $300K G3 Gotham Stakes
There is a ton of speed in this race and I see only one way to bet this – Montauk Traffic. Watch the fast fractions by Mischievous Alex, Celtic Striker, Untitled, First Deputy, War Stopper and Attachment Rate. They will fry each other given most horses’ competitive nature. That will set up perfectly for Montauk Traffic to close out the field. In his past two races, he has closed like a freight train while overcoming traffic. He is 2-2 at Aqueduct and Linda Rice/Jose Lezcano make for a formidable team clipping at 27%.