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For Friday, March 6, 2020, we are heading to The Big Easy for the 8th race. The weather will be clear, sunny and 66˚- a perfect spring day.
This is a $50K Optional Claimer going one mile on the turf for three year olds which have never won a race other than….or NW2.
Pursuant to SmartCap, the best last figures go to #2 Kinenos (7/2) and #8 Cruel Summer (3/1). The best overall speed goes to Cruel Summer and the best overall class is Kinenos. Cruel Summer has the second-best overall class and #7 Kunal (6/1) scored the best last two races.
This race is going to set up much differently for Cruel Summer than last. In his last, the pace was lacking, and he had laid back, struck in the stretch (while lugging in and bumping the dead heat winner). Today, #3 Cleanup Time (9/2), #6 Palace Coup (6/1) and #1 Noble Order (5/1) are all need the lead types and will set faster fractions
Brad Cox has two entries in this with Noble Order and Kinenos. Both have just broke their maiden in their second attempt and both ship in from disparate places. Cox is 28% off the layoff for Kinenos (last race in November) and 25% with Noble Order (last race in January)
Leading jockey James Graham takes over for Mitchell Murrill on Cruel Summer while Murrill is on Kunal
Murrill and trainer Louie Roussel III are a 35%-win prop together
Both of Brad Cox’s entries have put in very pedestrian works since shipping in.
Cruel Summer has the best track record at 3:1-0-1 for $9503 per race
How I am going to bet this
I believe the setup will favor Cruel Summer and his love of this track and distance will be his biggest benefactors. I am going with a win/place combo. I’ll also bet a trifecta using Cruel Summer, Kunal, Palace Coup and Kinenos.
We use Equibase for all information
The graph on the right is the horse's last numbers
The graph on the left is its overall figures.
Bold Yellow means best; muted means second best and gray is worth mentioning
The bottom number is the class rating; the top its speed