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Yesterday, I peeled off five winners in a row at The Fair Grounds and put the lions share on Bell’s The One, the filly I selected here yesterday. As the race went off, Corey Lanerie was getting her into contention down the backstretch and in the blink of an eye, he checked her hard, completely taking her out of contention. Woe is me. Anything can happen in thoroughbred racing. That was a stark reminder.
Todays’ race is from Gulfstream Park. It’s the sixth race, a $40K claimer for four-year-olds. This is on the turf and one mile in distance. Post time is 3:33est.
SmartCap has four contenders:
#7 Faraway Kitten (2/1) gets best last, best overall speed and best overall class. Last race was the Tropical Park Derby and he chased the winner Halladay. Halladay returned to the G3 Tampa Bay Stakes, was third in the betting and ended up running up t the leaders, ducked in and bumped a rival to put himself out of it. He did improve his Equibase figure from 108 – 112. I am not sold on a horse leaving a stakes race, having a two-month layoff and moving into a claimer.
#8 Ambassador Jim (8/1) second best last, speed and class. Off since September, he has had a steady diet of uneventful works, including its last of one mile at 1:48. Yes, it’s a good thing to see a workout at, or above its next races’ distance, yet this trainer is only 6% bringing back horses that are off two to six months. The positive? Johnny V in the irons and he is 11% on turf and 13% in routes.
#3 Sublime Appeal (10/1) best last two races and second best for its last race. Trainer has a horrible record as does the jockey; however, this horse is second off the layoff and ran well last out, leading all the way until tiring in the stretch. That was a mile and a sixteenth and the turnback today, as well as his rounding into shape, will make him a live play.
#1 Driven By Thunder (5/2) is a worth mentioning in class and speed. Jockey/trainer 19%, trainer is 31% with horses off two to six months and this gelding is 14:7-0-0 at Gulfstream
Worth mentioning is #4 Hieroglyphics (7/2) recent $40K claimee for the Teresa Pompay barn who is 27% off the claim and Javier Castellano (14:4-0-2 last week) is in the irons. After turning in a 102 and 101 Equibase figure, this Pioneer Of The Nile gelding ran a blasé’ 89.
I am going with Sublime Appeal. His last race being competitive and the turnback in distance are solid signs of readiness.
We use Equibase for all information
· The graph on the right is the horse's last numbers
· The graph on the left is its overall figures.
· Bold Yellow means best; muted means second best and gray is worth mentioning
· The bottom number is the class rating; the top its speed