Post time 4:50 pm EST.
Can Mr. Buff (4/5) be beat in the $100K Haynesfield Stakes for NY breds at Aqueduct today? The weather will not be a factor as it’s a balmy winter day of 51̊ and sunny. What can be a factor is the distance. Although on the lead, and ahead by an ascending margin, for most of his last three, all determined at nine furlongs, the turn back of one furlong can play a role. If you take away his graded stakes races, he’s won seven of eight. He’s 12:7-3-0 for $417K at Aqueduct or $34,717 per time out
He will get early pressure from Syndergaard (3/1) who is coming off a layoff and you have to believe John Terranova will send him out early. Terranova 20% winners with horses off six+ months.
#3 Honor Up (4/1) who won this race last year, has been on the bench since May of last year and has very sharp works since. 8:4-2-1 for $268,618 or $33,517 per race.
#4 I Love Jaxson (5/1) can rally if a pace melts down. Trainer Linda Rice is 39% brining back a horse after <7 days.
#5 Twisted Tom (12/1) looks to be a need a longer race type. Pass
#6 Fleet Irish (30/1) is overmatched by the others. Pass
Conclusion – over the past few days, Aqueduct has been playing to speed and Mr. Buff is going to be very tough to beat. At 4/5 ml odds and the probability of him being bet to 1/5 or less, I’ll think he’ll win and will pass betting this race. I will look for a place bet on I Love Jaxson.
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We use Equibase for all information
The graph on the right is the horses last numbers
The graph on the left is its overall figures.19
Bold Yellow means best; muted means second best and gray is worth mentioning
The bottom number is the class rating; the top its speed