Tampa Bay Downs
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Thoroughbreds

FREE Wednesday SmartCap pick for the 5th race at Tampa Bay Downs

Post time is 2:29 pm EST.

RT

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For Wednesday, Jan. 22, we are going to Tampa bay Downs for the 5th race.

This is a one mile, $32K Optional Claimer, on the turf, for fillies and mares that are four years old and up.

#4 Rosebud’s Hope (9/2) is going to take a lot of money in this and the best explanation is his jockey – Pablo Morales. Pablo is 23% on turf and 25% in routes, so it makes sense to have interest in his mount. Other than that, SmartCap is not identifying him as in the same company as some of these.

#7 Joy Nidera (4/1) gets our best last, best last two races, best overall speed and nearly best class. She has only run in one race in this country having shipped in from Argentina, however, she scored near wins in two G1 events there and a G3 winner. Today, she gets second Lasix and it appears that her last race, The $100K My Charmer Stakes, was merely a blow out to get the lay of the land. Frankly, the pp’s are limited, so it is difficult to entirely know her running style, but based on what I can tell, she’s the presser/closer type. Her jockey, Jesus Castanon, is 18% on turf and 13% in routes. Along with trainer Ignacio Correas, they are a 19% proposition. Since her last race, she’s had four workouts and appears to be acclimating.

#3 Primela (5/1) has strong numbers and after the recent switch from trainer Cherie DeVaux to Kevin Rice, I am going to give a pass because Rice is 0% with horses off a long layoff.

#5 Layla Noor (2/1) ships in from Laurel and in her last, the $100K Thirty-Eight Go Go Stakes, she was abysmal, and I suspect it was from a change of surface. She’s had five strong works since and looks to be a solid contender.

My choice in this is #7 Joy Nidera. The second time Lasix, the blowing the dust off race is over and I can see her getting a good trip in this spot.

SmartCap's 5th at Tampa Bay Downs.
SmartCap's 5th at Tampa Bay Downs.RT

SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

A sample SmartCap race chart.
A sample SmartCap race chart.RT
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