Horse Racing at Parx Racing
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FREE SmartCap Tuesday Horse Racing Pick for the 8th race at Parx

Post time 3:34 pm EST.

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Todays’ race is the 8th at Parx. This is a six furlong sprint for 4yo and up which have never won two races other than, or non-winners of three.

After employing Equibase speed and class figures through SmartCap, you’ll see where there seems to be a hodgepodge of possibilities. Instead of attempting to disseminate eleven horses, I’ll take it one step forward and run numbers on how well each horse has fared at that track.

In this case, as you’ll see in the graphic, the #1a Cowboy Mz (7/2), and #5 Cozy Lover (6/1), have the best overall earnings. You’ll then see that #1 Fort Fortitude (7/2), #4 Won And Done (5/2) and #5 Cozy Lover all win 50% of the time they’ve raced at Parx. #1 Fort Fortitude has the highest earnings for each time he’s raced here and #4 Won And Done is next, with #10 Splicethemainbrace (8/1) coming in a near third. Finally, the entry of 1 and 1a have the best dollars every time they hit the board.

Next, who has best last? This should signify the horses’ condition and #2 Angry Moon (15/1) as well as #3 Runformunnings (3/1) show strong results. Fort Fortitude, #10 Splicethemainbrace and #9 Spirit Special (8/1) are a very close second.

For best last two races, #2 Angry Moon (15/1) has the clear advantage.

Next, for best overall speed and class, #4 Won And Done is best speed and Runforthemunnings has best overall class.

Finally, Equibase gives this race a 106 rating, so whom, in this race, has hit that number of late?

#4 Won and Done posted two 108’s two and three back in $35K aoc company. In his last versus similar company, he scored a 99 when winning going away. This makes you wonder if jockey Alex Cintron didn’t let off the gas when the race was in hand.

#10 Runforthemunnings posted a 108 two back while smoking the field at Laurel in a $52K allowance. He then posted a 90 in a $62.5K oc at Aqueduct after a six week layoff where he lost to Wicked Trick, who subsequently moved up in class and won his last out.

So, by process of elimination, I am taking the best class, best last, drop in price, chased a next out winner in his last race, and second off a layoff, #3 Runforthemunnings. I will also be betting #4 Won And Done, #1 Fort Fortitude and #10 Splicethemainbrace in exotics.

How the 8th race horses have fared at Parx.
How the 8th race horses have fared at Parx.RT
SmartCap's 8th at Parx.
SmartCap's 8th at Parx.RT

SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

A sample SmartCap race chart.
A sample SmartCap race chart.RT

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