Thursday Horse Racing: Garrity picks races at Keeneland before the fall meet ends on Sunday
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We'll head back to Keeneland today, mostly because there's a good card, but also because the boutique meeting is winding down: closing day in Lexington is Sunday. It's hard to feel sad with the Breeders Cup a week away, but the closing of the Keeneland fall meet is always a sign that the racing season is nearing its end.
The dirt will be fast, but we're expecting the turf to have a bit of give in it. It was rated "good" yesterday, and we are expecting something similar today. Let's go.
Keeneland, Race 5, 3:18 pm ET
Allowance/Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
There's a field of seven in this one, a dirt sprint for female allowance runners. We like 2-Mongolian Humor: this 4-year-old filly has woken up since trainer Vladimir Cerin claimed her in August, running three good races in a row. She ran last in the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita, where she finished fifth; that race was at a mile and a sixteenth, and we think this one-turn distance suits her much better. She also has an edge in speed figures, which is key. We will bet her to win at 5/2. The bet: Keeneland, Race 5, $30 to win on 2-Mongolian Humor.
Keeneland, Race 6, 3:51 pm ET
Allowance, 1 3/16 miles, turf, 3 & Up
A full field of twelve goes to the post in this first-level allowance. It's a good race to handicap, as the field lacks a clear standout, so we have to dive deep into the past performances to find a winner.
We like 9-Bluegrass Parkway. This is a beautifully bred colt, by ace sire Quality Road out of a Candy Ride mare, and he has the look to us of a late-developing 3-year-old: he had a layoff from May to September, and came back in his last race with a much better race than he'd run previously, finishing third, only a half length behind the winner, in a similar spot at Belmont Park. We think he's going to take the money today. He's got a very strong late kick, which will suit him well here, as the field has some speed in it. We will bet him to win at 2-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 6, $30 to win on 9-Bluegrass Parkway.
Keeneland, Race 8, 4:57 pm ET
Allowance, 1 1/16 miles, turf, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
There's no stakes race at Keeneland today, but this one might as well be one, as it's a very, very tough allowance race. Nine will go to the post, but we're all in on the favorite: 2-Daddy Is a Legend is not exactly a win machine, with only three wins in 13 lifetime starts, but she's been running in some of the toughest turf stakes races in the country. And she's been running well in them, including a very good third last out in the Just a Game at Belmont Park in June. She's in here off a brief freshening, and while trainer George Weaver may not have her fully cranked up for this effort, we think she will win here even with her B game. Put bluntly, she outclasses the rest of the field. We will bet her to win at even money. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $50 to win on 2-Daddy is a Legend.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.