We're headed to Indiana Grand in suburban Indianapolis today, which will hopefully dodge the severe weather that is supposed to hit the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. We've handicapped the races for firm turf and fast dirt. Let's go.
Indiana Grand, Race 3, 3:11 pm ET
$5,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs, dirt, Indiana-bred fillies & mares 3 & up
Seven go in this one. The favorite, 6-Willistayorwilligo, has an edge in speed figures, and she has the most early speed, but her edge in both departments is very slight, and her 6/5 morning-line price looks to us to be too short. She is probably an underlay, and one of the first things we learned in this game was that one must bet against the underlays.
We like 4-Shayla. Her speed figures are close to the favorite's, and her late-running style, we think, is a better fit for a race that looks to have an early pace that is too fast. We think that the pace will soften up the front-runners, and set the table for Shayla to win the race with a late stretch move. She also is dropping in class here, and we think she will find the softer competition here much to her liking. We will bet her to win at 9/2. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 3, $25 to win on 4-Shayla.
Indiana Grand, Race 4, 3:39 pm ET
$25,000 Claiming, 1 mile, turf, 3 & up
Eleven drew into this one, and it's a good betting race. There's a lot of speed in here, and that makes us look for a closer. The pick is 9-General Kitten, who just missed at this level on July 24 here at Indiana Grand. We see him sitting off the pace, and winning the race with a big late move. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 4, $20 to win on 9-General Kitten.
Indiana Grand, Race 5, 4:07 pm ET
$5,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, dirt, Indiana-breds 3 & up
This one looks almost too easy: 3-O'Prado Perk has a huge edge in speed figures, drops from Maiden Special Weight into maiden claiming, goes from turf to dirt, comes from the high-percentage barn of Genaro Garcia, and gets the services of top rider Martin Pedroza. The only thing about this horse we can't figure is the price: his 3-1 morning-line odds look like a mistake to us. He will be shorter; we will bet him to win anyway. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 5, $40 to win on 3-O'Prado Perk.
Indiana Grand, Race 8, 5:31 pm ET
$10,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, turf, 3 & up
Twelve draw into this one, and it is another turf race with an abundance of early speed. We don't think any of the frontrunners can last the 8 1/2 furlongs, so we'll again look for a closer. The one we like most is 4-Inheritthewind, who drops into this one from $16k claiming company. He should get a good trip from his inside post, and we will look for him to be running late. We will bet him to win at 9/2. The bet: Indiana Grand, Race 8, $20 to win on 4-Inheritthewind.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.