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Kreesie in the winner’s circle following victory in one of the 2018 New York Stallion Stakes (Adam Coglianese)
Kreesie in the winner’s circle following victory in one of the 2018 New York Stallion Stakes (Adam Coglianese)|NYRA
Thoroughbreds

Thoroughbreds Sunday - McMudder Picks Belmont Park, Laurel, Monmouth

Mick McMudder

Mick McMudder

Trying to figure out what it takes for turf races to stay on? Only turf courses with sufficient drainage can be used following all of the rain from this past week. Everywhere else, even the stakes races were taken off. When stakes races come off the turf, it offers a completely different opportunity for the punter. Most stakes races do not have MTOs since there are not restrictions on scratching. Therefore, finding the suitable dirt horse among all of the turf pedigrees and form lines, especially the European ones, can be especially daunting. The keys are all about pedigree. Look for dirt sires but more importantly, look for speed influenced pedigrees. Why? Because lone speed is very important in short fields and it is especially important to be in front if you don’t like kickback. Salt Lake, Carson City and Speightstown are all good dam sires for this.

Weather: Sunny and mild with low humidity. Warmer than Saturday but still gorgeous.

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Belmont Race 3 (2:34 p.m.)
5-Barkaa burned Mick’s money in the Galorette but shows up in a softer spot here. Chad Brown aside, this one was very good in France but has not shown the same ability in the U.S. 3-Xenobia makes her first start Stateside after winning a G3 in Ireland. She showed a good turn of foot but may be a little sharp here and seeing out the additional distance could be a challenge. 2-Munchin Money runs hard every time but may be a step or two behind the top two. She moves to a new barn that may take a while to figure this one out.
Belmont Race 3
$10 W/P/S 5-Burkaa
$2 Exacta box 3,5
$1 Trifecta box 2,3,5

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Belmont Race 5 (3:40 p.m.) – New York Stallion Stakes
6-Newly Minted is exactly what Linda Rice is excellent at developing: young, fast, fillies. The concern here is twofold, this one is debuting on turf and the speed figures have dropped race over race. 5-Kid Is Frosty is improving and has solid connections but may not be fast enough here. 4-Sweet Meadow Mist is the other undefeated runner here and deserves consideration. She is bred to be fast but comes from off the pace. That should be a good combination in this spot.
Belmont Race 5
$10 W/P/S 4-Sweet Meadow Mist
$2 Exacta box 4,6
$1 Trifecta box 4,5,6

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Laurel Race 1 (1:10 p.m.)
6-Determined Mission steps up off a maiden score. She is first on turf for this one and has the right connections and pedigree to make the surface change. Whisman/Capuano pairing wins at 75%, too. 8-Jabuticaba broke her maiden last out and appeared to relish the firm turf. 2-Why Now improved considerably on the turf and moves to a 35% rider for this barn.
Laurel Race 1
$10 W/P/S 6-Determined Mission
$2 Exacta box 6,8
$1 Trifecta box 2,6,8

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Monmouth Race 10 (5:17 p.m.) – Dan Horn Stakes
2-Irish Strait
stands above these and stands above most NJ breds in recent history. He won this race last year and then won the Clark at Pimlico in April. No one else is close. 3-Golden Brown is a very good race horse . . . on dirt. He is not the same on turf and his recent form has only confirmed it. He is a G3 winner on turf. 4-Love Is Your Name has never run on turf and still lacks a first level allowance win but he is fast and the pedigree is encouraging. View this as an experiment that could pay well.
Monmouth Race 10
$10 W/P/S 2-Irish Strait
$2 Exacta box 2,3
$1 Trifecta box 2,3,4

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MICK’S QUICKIES

Monmouth Race 8 (4:15 p.m.)
10-Jimi Bags cuts back in distance, but it shouldn’t matter. He is fast and should be able to get position.

Laurel Race 3 (2:10 p.m.)
7-Mega Millions makes the trip down I-95 for a barn that has been on fire at Delaware. Trust that the trip is worthwhile for a barn that wins at 31% with maiden claimers.

Belmont Race 8 (5:18 p.m.) – New York Stallion Stakes
4-Blindwillie McTell is very fast but has never been on turf. Linda Rice could sweep the Stakes races at Belmont today.