Spend your late afternoon track-surfing . . .
(Editor’s Note: RT picked the winners of the first two races at Pimlico yesterday in the picks he sent in to us, but due to a timing error, the post went up after those races were completed so we removed those picks.)
RT’s Saturday Stakes Sixer
Today, we’re going to review six stakes races:
· Woodbine 3 – The 8.5 panel, Grade 3 $125k Selene Stakes for 3yo Fillies
· Santa Anita 8 - The Grade 3, $100K Laz Barrera Stakes for 3yo going 7 Furlongs
· Churchill 9 – The Grade 3, $100K Louisville Stakes for 3yo+ going 1.5 Miles on the turf
· Monmouth 10 - The $75K Politely Stakes for 3yo Fillies going 1 1/16th Miles on turf
· Belmont 11 - The 7 Furlong, Grade 3 $100K Soaring Softly Stakes for 3yo Fillies on turf
· Pim 13 The Grade 1 $1.5M Preakness Stakes for 3yo going 1 & 3/16th Miles
4 – Bold Script (4/5) six times out, two wins, one place and two shows - $210K. The next closest? 2 – Power Gal: 6 races, two wins and three places. $135K. Enough said.
Woodbine Race 3 Bets
4 - $50/w $100/p
Santa Anita 8th
6 – Synthesis (12/1) two back, Synthesis, coming off a five-week layoff, entered the Santa Anita Big Cap, stalked between horses, then bid three wide on the backstretch and into the second turn, only to be passed by Roadster and Game Winner. This was trainer George Papaprodromou’s (25%) first go with him. The most recent out, he was in a turf race where he didn’t respond well to the surface. Today, the 1 – Mucho Gusto, the 5 – Manhattan Up, and the 3- Principe Carlo, will be vying for the lead going into the near turn. Jockey Rafael Bejarano (21%) will be moving into position after saving ground and will be kicking it into gear down the stretch.
2 – Sparky Ville (5/2) jockey Victor Espinoza (27%) will give this gelding a similar trip as the 6 and will become involved in a stretch duel. Trainer Jeff Bonde winning 29% on cutbacks.
Santa Anita Race 8 Bets:
$3 Exacta Box 6-5-1
$1 Trifecta 3-2/3-2-1/6, 3-2/6/3-2-1, 6/3-2/3-2-1
Churchill Downs 9th
4 – Shahroze (7/2) last time at this distance, this Graham Motion (21%) trainee closed out his last six furlongs in 1:10.71. This is remarkable considering that a full six panels had already been run. This was at Woodbine, an all-weather surface, which his final time in that race would be a Churchill record. Jockey Landeros and trainer Graham own a 21% win rate and given the short field plus the distance, Sharoze will pull away in the stretch.
1 - Tiz A Slam (3/1) owns the best last figures and trainer Roger Attfield with jockey Steven Bahen clipping at 31%. Bahen rode Tiz A Slam to two graded stakes win and a place last year, with one of those at this twelve panel distance.
Churchill Downs Race 9 Bets:
4 - $50/w $100p
4 – Mrs. Ramona G (7/2) a physically gorgeous gray filly, this daughter out of the dam Barbarella (2 foals having 9 total starts and 4 wins), and sire Kantharos (3 starts, 3 wins), was pinched on the stretch last out and when she finally got a lane, it was quickly blocked off, not allowing her to gain momentum to close. Trainer Jeremiah Engelhart (32% moving his horses down in class) has jockey Angel Suarez (265 L10) up. Eight times on turf for this lady and four wins for $186K. The slower pace of this race will allow Suarez to position her from this middle spot to strike at the near turn.
7 – Entirely (6/1) being the only closer in this field, jockey Dylan Davis will be a big benefactor of a speed duel. This looks like the right race for Entirely’s jockey to score a much needed stakes win while being on an arctic streak. Trainer Jonathan Thomas on a 32% win tear for stakes and a 37% for turf.
1- My Galina (4/1) evidently the connections of this $275K Godophin filly with incredible breeding, Megadlia d’Oro and AP Indy, feel well enough about her lone start/victory in an MSW four weeks ago, to enter her here today. Second Lasix user gets jockey Reylu Gutierrez (15% L/30) and trainer Jorge Abreu fetching 21% winners when moving up in class.
3 – Stillwater Cove (5-2) trainer Wesley Ward, having a fantastic meet (37%) has Joe Bravo (19% turf wins) up this daughter of Quality Road. Having just worked out 5 furlongs in :59.8, she came out of Limestone Turf Stakes in good order and is ready to go today.
Belmont Race 11 Bets:
7- $75/w $150/p
$3 Exacta Box 7-1-3
The 144th Running of The Preakness
Pimlico Race 13
When this race is concluded, the headlines will read:
“Kelly Rubley First Female Trainer To Win The Preakness”
The Way I see It -
Market King gets the jump early with Anothertwistafate running up early to get position. As they spin out of the first turn, Market King will stay on the lead hitting the first fraction at 22.5 or so. Directly behind him will be War Of Will, Anothertwistafate, Warriors Charge, Alwaysmining and Improbable. Moving up the back stretch, Warrior’s Charge, Anothertwistafate and Alwaysmining will dispense with the leaders and enter the far turn in that order. Coming out of the turn and into the stretch, Alwaysmining will make a huge move and run away from the field, winning by three.
The tipping point for me was listening to an interview with Kelly Rubley. She explained, that Alwaysmining is “kept on a quiet track without a lot of company because he’s extremely competitive.” Rubley explained, “if another horse comes up to him, he’s not going to let him go by without a struggle.”
Horses are pack animals and want to be among each other. Not this guy. He wants to win and frankly, after watching his last three races, I truly believe nobody knows how good he really is.
The Preakness Bets:
7 – Alwaysmining - $200/w $400/p
$10 Exacta Box 7-3-12