Thoroughbreds Sunday: RT handicaps likely sloppy stakes races at Belmont, Monmouth, Woodbine (dry there) and . . . Belterra
Sunday’s East Of The Mississippi Stakes
Happy Mothers’ Day to all out there…especially mine, Big Gina
Belterra 7th - Rainy and 59˚in Cincinnati
$75K Tomboy Stakes
Ohio Bred Fillies 3 years old going 1.0625 Miles Turf
(This is probably not running on turf today.)
1 – H. F. Carmel (15/1) looking to be a speed duel and this filly out of Devil His Due is going to stay near enough to where she’ll benefit from her closing style. Jockey Gerardo Corrales scoring like Wilt with women, getting 33% winners the past ten days.
5 – Totally Obsessed (7/2) jockey Luis Quinones goes for four in a row on this bay filly. In her last out, Obsessed ran away from the crowd in the $75K Southern Park Stakes where she wired the field with ease. Trainer Gary Johnson is 18% with stretching out and 23% winners with Quinones up.
7 – Pearls In Charge (10/1) playing bridesmaid to Totally Obsessed the past two, Pearls gets her chance at redemption today. She’s had three solid works since including a recent bullet in 1:01 for five furlongs.
13 – Absorb (5/2) like Cris Carter, all she does is score. Three outs. Three wins. Will speed duel with 5, 7, 10, 9 – Here Comes Jigs, 10 – Drillit, 11 – Candy Lane, 12 – Hey Adrian and 2 – Mep.
Belterra Race 7 Bets
1 - $25/w $50/p
$2 Exacta 1/all
$1 Trifecta 5-13/5-13-7/1, 5-13/1/5-13-7, 1/5-13/5-13-7
Monmouth 9th - Rainy and a raw 50˚
$100K Long Branch Stakes
3yo’s going 1.0625 Furlongs
My first inclination was to go with the favorite in this, 1 - Joevia (2/1), given his last race in The Wood where he set the pace against Tacitus, Tax and Haikal; however, 5 -Regally Irish, showed a huge improvement in his last with excellent closing skills on the turf. Monmouth, if it is an off track today, will play into that. Additionally, I am going to chase an angle here which is to bet on a gelding when facing many colts. Given that the procedure accelerates the horses musculoskeletal faculties, I am looking for the maturity of 2 – Pretty Good Year (10/1) and 4 – Red Gum to use their pressing styles to be near in the stretch and maybe win it.
Monmouth Race 9 Bets
4 & 2 - $10/w $20/p
$1 Exacta Box 4-2-5
$1 Trifecta 4-5/4-5-1/2, 4-5/2/4-5-1, 2/4-5/4-5-1
Woodbine 8th – Slight sun and 48˚
$125K Fury Stakes
3yo Fillies Foaled in Canukland going 7 Furlongs
1 – Hastalavistababy (8/1) and 7 – Western Curl (6/1) are two strong closers in this field that will benefit from the fast-early fractions of horses 3 – Silent Mistake (4/1), 5 – Artilena (5/2), 4 – Malibu Dawn (15/1).
6 – Intanga Rose (2/1) and 2 – Speedy Soul (10/1) will lay up behind and when they near the far turn, the 1 and 7 will be near and ultimately duel in the stretch. Given the dig in and fight nature of Hastalavistababy, the edge goes to her.
Woodbine Race 8 Bets
1 - $25/w $50p
Belmont 8th – Raw and Rain 50˚
$100K Gold Fever Stakes
3yo’s going 6 Furlongs
7 – Wendell Fong (10/1) caught a buzzsaw in Alwaysmining two back and then dropped to a $50K Aoc and scored a V. In that, Wendell nailed his last fraction in :12.47 on a typically speed biased Laurel. The outside post will play an absolute benefit for jockey Jorge Vargas and he will be flying in the stretch.
3 – Sombeyay (7/2) chased the likes of Knicks Go, Signalman and Standard Deviation in the G1 Claiborne Breeders Futurity last out at Keeneland, he looks to have a better trip than last in a shorter field. Trainer Todd Pletcher a whiz with layoff horses (29%) and his two of his last three work being bullets, shows he’s ready. We’ll see if the good people at Starlight Farms recaptures some of the $230K they paid for this Into Mischief colt today.
1 – Call Paul (5/2) seven times out and four winners is tough to bet against. Gets blinkers for the first time today due to his trouble at the gate in the last two.
4 – Much Better (4/5) will be a heavy favorite and cannot back a 4/5 horse who has yet to win in New York and his trainer, Bob Baffert, seems to have that curse of late as well.
Belmont Race 8 Bets
7 - $25/w $50/p
$2 Exacta Box 7-3-1
$1 Trifecta 3-1/3-1-4/7, 3-1/7/3-1-4, 7/3-1/3-1-4