Post time 12:45 pm EDT
Churchill Downs: Thursday, May 2nd
Thunderstorms & 84̊
Of note –
Last night, the 1 horse in MNR8 was a blowout winner and when I bet him with 2 mtp, he was 1-1. When the gate opened, the 1-1 odds stayed and as the race progressed, the odds were 3-5. Earlier yesterday, I noticed Churchill was closing their betting pools with about 3 minutes to go and let’s hope this becomes a standard practice. There is a ton of money placed by shops that drive the price in the last seconds and hopefully Churchills’ reason for stopping the wagering early is to prevent this from the actual player and not the computer rooms.
Of course, you heard Omaha Beach is out. Leaving the 12-hole open makes a difference in how to predict this race.
Congratulations to trainer John Hancock for his win in the Kentucky Juvenile. In that race, that was one ballsy move on Corey Lanerie’s part swinging Two Dot to the rail and getting up for 2nd.
$100K MSW 2yo’s 5f
6 – Baytown Legend (20/1) taking a flyer on this guy because he has a race under his belt and not gets 1st Lasix. Adam Beschizza retains the mount and given the early speed that’ll be present, he’ll have a chance to strike at the turn
2 – Salty Snapper (20/1) same reasons as above and Salty is a 2nd time Lasix user.
7 – Memorable (7/2) snapped off a 4f breeze from the gate recently in :48. Sire gets 14% winners and trainer Steve Asmussen 22% in this spot. $75K Empire Maker colt snapped off an above average breeze figs and stride length at Ocala.
5 – Neverblink (10/1) trainer Laura Wohlers 14% with first time starters and he’s reeled off two solid 4f works in :48. American Pharaoh sire and dam has a 27% win rate and 50% with first time starters – small sample.
1/1A Wesley Ward Entries Lady Delaware and Winyah Boy (8/5) 37% winners with 1st timers, Winyah Boy has zoomed the gate in his last two works clocking :36.2 and :36.4, respectively. That is why I am not leaning toward either. All 3f workouts will mean they’ll run a great 3f race.
Churchill Downs Race 1 Bets
6 & 2 - $10/w & $20/p
$1 Exacta Box 6-2-7-5
$1 Trifecta 6-7/6-2-7/5, 6-7/5/6-2-7, 5/6-2/6-2-7
$1 Trifecta 5-7/5-7-1/2, 5-7/2/5-7-1, 2/5-7/5-7-1
$50K Claimers 4yo+ going 1.0625 Miles
1 – He’s Bankable (9/2) given this gelding out of Archs’ propensity for turf, going to side with him in the impeding rain. Casse/Bridgmohan a deadly 25% tandem and Casse is 30% with moving down to claimers.
2 – Cowboy Rhythm (7/2) follower of trainer Diodoro (28% last 30 days), he gets Tyler Baze in the irons and has had several positive works since last.
5 – Altito (8/1) OP shipper gets Laparoux in the irons for the first time. With trainer David Vance, they’re a 29% win proposition. Altito a lover of CD going 9:3-2-0
4 – Supreme Aura of course, you thought the same thing…the name, in all its disdain, reminds you of________. Interestingly, he comes out of the G2 Commonwealth Stakes and will figure in the exotics.
Churchill Downs Race 2 Bets
1 - $25/w $50/p
$2 Exacta Box 1-2-5
Trifecta 1-5/1-5-4/2, 1-5/2/1-5-4, 2/1-5/1-5-4
$100K Maiden F&M’s 3yo+ 1M
5 – Awesome One (4/1) my pod. This is one game filly. In her last race, she went nose to nose with Repatriated Gem and she dug in gamely to lose by ever so little. Based on her workout of late, she came out of it well and will get the job done today. Shhhhh, keep it a secret, damnit. 4-1 looks attractive.