Another example of track bias at work at Parx on Monday. Speed held and lone speed was especially valuable with several winners making all the pace and others being very close. It was no place for closers. Why does this happen? Because every racing surface is influenced by rain, wind and sun. Until the day of the race, and usually after the first race or two, it is impossible to determine whether the track will be fair or not. By being at the track it becomes obvious pretty quickly but even watching races online, there is a difference how certain horses get over the track. For the punter, determining track bias and adjusting bets accordingly may be the most important aspect of handicapping you can master.
Picks for April 30, 2019:
Maybe some rain to completely change the racing surface…again.
Parx Race 2
7-Infield Is In won at a considerably higher level last out in NY. He gets on the truck to come to Parx to run below a level available in NY. Mick smells a fish. This horse is an understandable disappointment having cost $90K as a yearling but current connections only paid $16K to claim and have a win and some showings to show for it. Are they just being aggressive here? Probably, given both the race level and the busy claims box at Parx. The odds on this one getting claimed are 1/20 . . . a sure thing. So how to beat the chalk? 6-Lucky Clemen, 8-Beyond Honor, and 9-Eastern Front have all been close at this level and any of them winning would pay bombs. Definitely use in your exotics and use the best odds on top.
$10 W/P/S 9-Eastern Front
$2 Exacta Box 7,8,9
$1 Trifecta Box 6,7,8,9
$0.10 Superfecta Box 6,7,8,9
Parx Race 4
3-Ironclad takes a drop of mammoth proportions having won for $50K three back and $35K two back. There is something wrong with this one but it may not matter here. Again, this needs to be an effort to beat the chalk and the best options lie to the inside, 1-Retrograde and 2-Don’t Make It Easy. 2-Don’t Make It Easy is the pick here off of the Mike Pino reclaim. A very strong angle.
$10 W/P/S 2-Don’t Make It Easy
$2 Exacta box 1,2,3
$1 Trifecta box 1,2,3
Mick’s Quick Picks
Parx Race 5: 4-Stroll Action goes back to the same level as her success last out and this looks much the same. Needs to get the added distance but she has done it before.
Parx Race 7: 3-Roanie has a giant for sale sign on him today. After almost winning a PA allowance last out he goes back to the claiming ranks at the next stop above where he was last haltered. Aggressive move that will only pay off with a win and a claim.