Thoroughbreds: McMudder picks Parx and Laurel Park on a rare, dry Monday
Following the rains over the weekend, watch for track bias to come into play as the tracks dry out. There has been no rain for 24 hours so the tracks have been opened up and harrowed for a while, plus works this morning. Take a look at the morning works at the track of interest and see whether they were very fast. If they were, be prepared for an even faster track in the afternoon with a significant speed bias. This is the same as you should expect going into big race days later in the spring.
Picks for April 22, 2019:
Gorgeousness…all day long. Enjoy fast and firm.
Laurel Race 2
1-Stakes On a Plane was intended for much better than this as is shown by all of her early career appearances in Stakes races but she never reached the bar of Black-type and now she is left to fight out starter races like this one. She is undefeated on turf, has the right pedigree and gets Jorge Vargas, Jr in the irons. All positives. The bigger positive is the lack of significant talent in this field. 2-Baccarat Fashion and 8-Hip Hop both have decent numbers but those are either on dirt or from long ago. If 1-Stakes On a Plane can work out a trip, she is the pick.
$10 W/P/S 1-Stakes On a Plane
$2 Exacta Box 1,2,8
$1 Trifecta Box 1,2,8
Laurel Race 3
This is a maiden claimer but the MD bred and sired horses may waive the tag. As a result, it looks more like a MD bred maiden special weight. It appears this race filled based on the uncoupled Elkstone Group runners 1-Top Line Growth and 2-Creative Budgeting. Both have significant works but 2-Creative Budgeting has the experience and Todd Pletcher. 4-Reds Winning Call may be the most interesting option in here since he has improved since the layoff, and gets two turns for the first time. If the distance suits, this one could take this field a long way. 3-Welling is from a good mare, barn and jockey but needs to show better turn of foot late to get a piece.
$10 W/P/S 2-Creative Budgeting
$2 Exacta 2/1,3,4
$1 Trifecta 2/1,3,4/1,3,4
$0.10 Superfecta 2/1,3,4/1,3,4/1,3,4
Parx Race 1
Trainer Nick Zito has won plenty of big races in his long and illustrious career but his favorite in this race, 1-Osheen, looks suspect. She has a long, turf pedigree and started her career doing exactly that. Unfortunately, she proved unworthy and has made her way to the bottom in this dirt maiden claimer. She couldn’t get it done last time and she won’t here. Instead, look for 3-Dereya to spring the upset. She ran an improved race last out and gets jockey Kevin Carmona for the return voyage. Uriah St Lewis’ big horse didn’t connect over the weekend but this little filly should here.
$10 W/P/S 3-Dereya
Parx Race 4
9-Dr Burt takes the plunge and climbs on the bus down from Belmont for trainer Danny Gargan. This is Gargan’s first venture to the Keystone State this year and he has convinced jockey Pablo Fragoso to join him. 8-Homeofthe Lombardi is taking an even more pronounced drop following the ultimate equipment change…gelding. This is a stronger angle for this one. 2-Midnight Honey should be around to pick up the pieces if the top two can’t seal the deal.
$10 W/P/S 9-Dr Burt
$2 Exacta Box 8,9
$1 Trifecta 8,9/8,9/1,2
Mick’s Quick Picks
Laurel Race 4: 1-Seeking the Sunset should be well rested for this one. Big winner and a big fig last time with this surface and distance.
Laurel Race 5: 1-Allison K takes the next logical step after winning three straight at lower levels. Each win has brought a higher speed figure, too.
Parx Race 7: 5-Bethlehem Road blew away a field last out and lost his balls as a result? Odd move considering both performance and breeding but it means these connections are all in on race track performance because they chose to change his future options considerably.
Parx Race 8: 10-Brother Chub is a lunch pail kind of runner. Shows up, performs, does it over and over. Draws the usual crowd here but should prevail.