And they’re off at Aqueduct Racetrack.
And they’re off at Aqueduct Racetrack.Aqueduct / NYRA

Thoroughbreds: McMudder seeks to right the shippers and guess the track conditions at Aqueduct and Laurel Park

Post time is 1:10 pm at Laurel, 1:30 pm at Aqueduct.

More weather fun on the horizon as rains are promised today. When they come and how hard will have a huge impact on the racing at Aqueduct as much of the card is on the turf. The bigger question becomes how does the continued wet weather impact the upcoming Stakes races this weekend at the Big A and next weekend at Laurel? As long as the turf does not get dangerously slick, it should not have much of an impact. Both tracks have significant options with their turf courses due to the width at Laurel and the inner/outer combination at Aqueduct. In retrospect, the smartest thing Aqueduct may have done with their infrastructure in the last decade was to convert the old inner dirt track to a turf track enabling earlier use of the grass and the resulting bigger fields.

Picks for April 12, 2019:

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs? Something will come out of the sky at some point today. Light rain will be easier to deal with than thunderstorms but it could be both.

Aqueduct Race 3
The biggest question to be answered this week at the Big A is how will the Florida and Louisiana horses run on the grass in NY this year. This race is a perfect example of the uncertainty involved in handicapping. Even though the field is small for a turf race, 6 horses will go forward at most, there is no shared recent history in the field. Starters are coming from Tampa, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, and off the shelf. And with no standout in the field, the search for a price horse is on! 6-Driven to Compete is interesting in that regard since this is his maiden voyage on the green. His pedigree is strong for turf and his recent effort on the dirt at Parx was solid, especially considering the depth of the Parx oval. Dirt to Turf is not Todd Pletcher’s strongest angle but he is solid here. 3-Lemonist is the other Pletcher horse in the race and he won the first level allowance last out at Gulfstream. This is a much tougher field, but a repeat of his last race puts him in contention. 1-Greek Alphabet is a bit of a disappointment making only his 7th career start at the age of 5 but he is returning to the surface where he ran a good race last summer at Belmont to break his maiden. The two most recent efforts were poor but a return to the turf should help.
$10 W/P/S 6-Driven to Compete
$2 Exacta box 1,3,6
$1 Trifecta 1,3,6

Aqueduct Race 4
Moving from a short field on turf to a huge field on turf should open up many more angles and with this being a maiden race with plenty of inexperienced runners, all the more probability for a big price. Immediate attention goes to the first timer from Linda Rice, 8-Sounds Good. He is bred for the turf, has successful turf runners close up in his pedigree, and gets jockey Jose Lezcano who is winning at 42% on Rice horses. In a field with so many unproven runners, go with the firster with the pedigree from the quality barn.
$10 W/P/S 8-Sounds Good

Laurel Race 1
1-Cherryandthehawk
and 3-Brushing are virtually indistinguishable on paper with both winning at the same level last out in virtually identical speed figures. No one else looks close and daily track variance won’t be known for the first race of the day. The play is 1-Cherryandthehawk if speed is holding and 3-Brushing if closers are in control. So….use them both.
$5 Exacta box 1,3

Laurel Race 2
1-Maynooth
should not lose this race. He comes from a top barn, gets the top jockey, and ran the best speed figure last out. So how do you make money here? Figure out who is a step or two behind and go deep. 3-Praise the Moon, 4-Outvoted, and 5-Lovely Games all have more bad days than good days but they should all be around for the minor awards. Can any of them win? Not here but somebody will finish second, third and fourth.
$20 W 1-Maynooth
$2 Exacta 1/3,4,5
$1 Trifecta 1/3,4,5/3,4,5
$0.10 Superfecta 1/3,4,5/3,4,5/3,4,5

Mick’s Quick Picks

Aqueduct Race 8: 1-Big Engine has never been on the turf but the pedigree says he should like it. The breaks between starts is a concern as are the slow works but trainer Jason Servis doesn’t send poorly intended horses out.

Laurel Race 6: 5-Strive for a Cure looks completely outclassed in this race following two meh races off the layoff but trainer Dale Capuano is having a great meet and this one faced tremendous pace pressure last out at a higher level. Looking for a price, a price that is seldom seen on a Dale Capuano horse.

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