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Thoroughbreds: McMudder’s looking for good values on cheap horses

Monday races at Parx

Mick McMudder

Mick McMudder

Lots of cheap horses. 6 of 10 races at Parx today are for claiming tags of $10K or below. 4 races on Friday at Laurel are for $5K tags. Why the sudden increase in the number of cheap races on the cards at Maryland and Pennsylvania’s premiere tracks? 2 races for $8K on one card at Aqueduct this weekend, even though it was a split field. Are the horses getting cheaper? No more than usual. This happens every year as the natural conversion occurs with the better horses getting a break but the lesser ones being persevered with for longer. When it costs between $70 and $100 a day to keep a horse at a major facility and they are running for $5K tags, they need to run a lot to make ends meet. Stakes horses, on the other hand, not so much. So right now is the lull that happens every year. The tracks need races and the only horses available are the old warriors that can go out twice a month and they are cheap so . . . lots of cheap races.

Picks for March 25, 2019:

Chillier than the picture perfect Sunday. Rains should not be significant.

Parx Race 1
$7500 n1 year for older boys at 6f. Lots of oldies but goodies in this race including many that meet the criteria in today’s introduction . . . cheap horses run more often. 5-Ruble is the pick here, not because he ran 20 times last year but because he moves to a new barn and gets the services of top jockey, Mychel Sanchez. How important is this? Sanchez rode 2-Billy Badpay to his best result and speed figure in years and hops off to ride the 5. Follow the top jockeys, they ride the best horses.
$10 W/P/S 5-Ruble

Parx Race 5
$8K Claimer for older fillies and mares at 5 ½f. 5-Rio Vista ran a wining race last out and takes the next logical step here. Trainer Scott Lake and jockey Angel Rodriguez hit at 28% together so the combination works. But will she bounce off of the career best speed figure last out? She has not put back to back good races together in recent history so there is concern. The top challengers are 8-R Lucky Charm and 9-Malandrina. 8-R Lucky Charm is super consistent but at a slower pace than what should win here. 9-Malandrina won two back but that was for different connections. Now she is in the care of Kate Demasi and gets Mychel Sanchez to ride, a 47% win combination. 47 is bigger than 28 . . . right?
$10 W/P/S 9-Malandrina
$2 Exacta box 5,8,9
$1 Trifecta box 5,8,9

And now for some quickies . . .

Parx Race 6
Maiden boys at 8f. 5-Chilly in Charge is today’s best bet. He ran well last out against tougher at Aqueduct. He makes the trip from Maryland for this spot and he will get underbet due to his connections. 8-Known But to God is just the opposite. He will get overbet because of his connections. They are very similar. Go with the better payoff.

Parx Race 9
Allowance for older boys at 8f 70. 3-Every Step may not be the sexiest pick in this race but he is super consistent and he should be well placed to pick up the pieces in this race that should go fast early.

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