Weather . . . what is going on? The rains yesterday were predicted to be light but both Laurel and Aqueduct ended up being sealed. Because most of the horses have spent the winter running, an off track is not as big of a change as it can be in June or July. That said, it still makes sense to make sure you are including logical horses that may move up on the off going. Yesterday, this meant several longshots filled exactas and trifectas but didn’t win. Therefore, consider more exotics with off track favoring horses underneath favorites to get value.
Picks for March 11, 2019:
The rain is supposed to move out but the humidity is high so drying will be slow. Expect sealed tracks, especially at the start.
Parx Race 3
$7500 n1y claimer for older boys at 8f70. 8-Terry’s Charm was good in a former life but has shown little for current connection. The short price is undeserved and the lay is in play in NJ but for the rest of us, finding a logical alternative is vital. 1-County Corrections is well placed off the claim but he has been a step below these recently and moves to a barn that is not outstanding off the claim. Look at 3-The Morning Guys for a back class horse that can run a good race often enough to be a threat. Going to a new barn that is enjoying increased success this meet may help and the value should be there.
$10 W/P/S 3-The Morning Guys
Parx Race 6
$12.5K Claimer for older boys at 6 ½f. 7-Elevated on his best day is better than these and should show that back class in a race with numerous other old warriors. The class break from his last two should put him in the mix earlier and he will be running late. Getting top jock Mychel Sanchez helps as will a drier track. If the track is still sealed by the 6th race, consider 6-Doddsprivatelabel who is second off a brief freshening and has excelled on the off going in the past. And he could pay well.
$10 W/P/S 7-Elevated
And now for some quickies . . .
Parx Race 2
5 ½f race for older fillies and mares for $7500 n2. Although she has not won on the off going, her best speed figs are on the off and her pedigree is strong, too. Look at 6-I Cried a Tear and hope that she can get a soft lead.
Parx Race 9
Optional Claimer $50K for 3 year old fillies at 8f. 5-Izzadora Bella blew away a similar field last out and should do so again with this field. This filly is the definition of progressive, better results and better speed figures in each of her last three races. The 8/1 M/L is a gift if it holds.