Photo by Mathew Schwartz on Unsplash
Good horses with careers full of bad luck. These are the ones that have run multiple winning races on all the wrong days or those that were clearly the best but took a wrong turn in the lane. These are quality horses that have bad luck. Or are they horses that are making their bad luck? Each needs to be taken separately to determine which camp they should belong to.
Most horses have some bad luck but the punter needs to determine when the bad luck is self-imposed and act accordingly. This can result in short-priced favorites that are very suspect, offering the potential to layoff or go against, depending on what the house is making available. Obviously, exchange betting in NJ will allow punters to choose the path where everyone else needs to look deeper.
PICKS FOR FRIDAY, FEB. 15, 2019
Warmer and nice assuming the wet weather holds off until the evening. Expect fast and fair since the tracks have enough moisture to remain tight.
AQUEDUCT RACE 1
Maiden Special Weight for older boys at 8f. Starting out the card with a . . . suspect short-priced favorite? 1-Zealous is the poster child for a bad luck horse. Five straight in the money finishes, including three in off the turf tries. This boy should have broken through by now but he has not been quite good enough . . . yet. Instead, look immediately outside to 2-Tiz Morning, a horse that showed an improvement last out moving to a new trainer. A continued step forward for this one should put him in the mix and the payoff should be worth it. This race might deserve a bridge jumping shot if 1-Zealous gets over bet in the show pool.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 2-Tiz Morning
Pick: $2 Exacta 2/1
AQUEDUCT RACE 6
$62.5 n2 for older fillies and mares at 8f. 4-Jump Ruler is another hard luck kind that has been not quite good enough at this level. She has excelled against softer but may not quite be good enough here. 5-Crimson Frost won this race three back and then ran with tougher the last two but seems to be inconsistent at best. Instead, look outside to 6-Face It. Throw out the Laurel try on a track that did not suit him and he gets back to his favorite distance on his favorite strip. The weight break may help, too.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 6-Face It
LAUREL RACE 1
Maiden $25K for 3 year old boys at 8f. 3-Honor Run is the third bad luck horse of the day having faded at 7f last out after rallying for second at 6f two back. Is the step up in distance warranted? Prior efforts and pedigree say no. Instead look to the one proven closer in the race -- 5-Rafter -- from a barn that seems to do well with closers. His pedigree screams improvement with distance, too.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 5-Rafter
LAUREL RACE 5
First level allowance for older boys at 7f. Great race with many story lines including horses stepping up in distance, horses coming off tough beats and horses returning to a fast strip. Throwing out the last race puts 6-Sacred Walk at the top of this class but the cut back to 7f is a bit of a concern as is the rise in class. A similar question about 7-Nicholas and Me except he is second off a long layoff and should improve and pay better. Instead, look for the value all the way outside with 8-Workin On a Dream, who is trying a new strip and new distance for a high percentage trainer and rider. The return to a sprint distance should be huge for him, too.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 8-Workin On a Dream
AND NOW FOR SOME QUICKIES . . .
AQUEDUCT RACE 4
5 ½ f race for maiden 3 year old fillies for $30k. Finding a first-time starter that is flying under the radar is key here since all of the experienced horses are the same on speed figures. 1-Phil’s Babe has the right kind of work tab and the right breeding to succeed here. Trainer Danny Gargan is still red hot at Aqueduct and this one is too well intentioned here to ignore.
LAUREL RACE 9
The other half of the 5th race today but with a completely different feel. 5-Toe Curlin Kiss would be the logical post Valentine’s Day pick but look for the upset from 7-Cousin Jimmy, a horse that ran a 1:09 flat to get up at the wire last out at 6f.