Good luck and be ready for the scratches…again. Friday was rough and Saturday will be rougher as more fields are decimated by scratches due to the recent bad weather and the oversubscribed races with multiple coupled entries (Parx has a race with twelve horses but only 8 betting interests due to 4 coupled entries). This will continue as trainers use place holders so horses in good form don’t miss starts and others are entered to just make a race go. Some tracks combat this by reducing coupled entries and that may happen more going forward but, for now, careful considering which horses are actually running.
Picks for February 1, 2019:
Cold and dry? Maybe, but the snow may cause the tracks to tighten up a little once it melts. That should happen by Saturday afternoon.
Aqueduct Race 3
Claiming $16K at 6 ½ f for older boys. 4-Javelin annexed the $14K n3 race last time and makes the obvious step forward to open company at this level. The problem is that these are much better horses than he faced last out. The classic angle here would be to look for droppers and there are two, 1-Lazarus Project and 5-Daddy DT. Both stand a chance here but 5-Daddy DT wants more ground and 1-Lazarus Project hasn’t been able to close the deal at 6 f and the extra half won’t help. Stick with 4-Javelin here and use the others in a nice trifecta play.
$10 W/P/S 4-Javelin
$1 Trifecta box 1,4,5
Aqueduct Race 4
Maiden special weight fillies a mile. This is a race for the aspirational. Three cost 6-figures and then there are the homebred runners from Juddmonte and Repole. A minimum of two fillies from this race will win stakes in their careers. For today, go with the most expensive sale horse, 2-Cariba, a $400K yearling purchase. She has shown improving form, closed well at 6f last out and breeding fits distance. Be careful with 4-Paynterbynumbers, a filly that would have won at this distance last out if she had relaxed. If she has grown up and is more professional, she provides the biggest threat to 2-Cariba.
$10 W/P/S 2-Cariba
Laurel Park Race 7
Optional claimer at $35K for fillies and mares at 8f. Nice group here with lots of different angles. Stakes winners . . . check. Last out winners . . . check. First off claim . . .check. Shippers. . .check. But the other angle is horses that were pointed to bigger races and ended up here. 2-Tuefles and Roses fits that since she was nominated for a Handicap at Aqueduct but shows up here.
$10 W/P/S 2-Tuefles and Roses
Parx Race 8
The aforementioned four coupled-entry race. Don’t expect all of these to go but it will be no picnic for anyone in this race. That’s because 6-No Picnic is coming off three straight wins and moves to a 18% off the claim barn. The obvious threat is 2-Celesse but she is half of an entry and could be lone speed except for her stable mate. Ultimately, this one is wide open so an exotic play is in line.
$0.10 Superfecta Box 1,2,3,6
And now for some quickies….
Aqueduct Race 9 Withers Stakes
One of several Derby prep races today. 1-Tax and 5-Lucky Lee look well suited to fight this one out but the advantage goes to the Parx invader, 5-Lucky Lee due to running style. He is lone speed and he should be able to get an easy lead and dominate all the way around. The key will be where Frankie Pennington’s hands are at the quarter pole. If they are in his lap and quiet, the race is over. If they are offering encouragement, there will be significant work to get this boy home.
Laurel Park Race 9
Optional claimer for 3-year-old boys at 8 ½ f. Wild array of pedigrees here with most of the field’s pedigrees suggesting today’s distance is too far. Go with the colt that has been reclaimed twice already in his career, 3-Top Hat Warrior. At least he went two turns at Delaware.
Parx Race 9
This race is virtually impossible to handicap, everyone is the same. They all like to win, especially the old guys. The speed figures are all very similar. This could be a ten horse blanket finish. But it won’t be. Plenty of speed so look for a deep closer to come out of the clouds. 4-Nice Surprise fits that bill and it would be career win 16. Isn’t that how many Super Bowls Tom Brady has won?