Good luck and watch out for horses entering new barns that will take them in a different direction. The claim boxes have been very busy recently so there are many starters in new barns. The obvious angle is when a horse moves from a low percent shop to a high percent one, especially one with proven success immediately off the claim. This should continue until Spring when horses start arriving from the South but more importantly, it’s when horses start going to tracks like Finger Lakes, Woodbine, Presque Isle and Fort Erie. Horses are restricted from racing at a new track for 60 days following a claim so the boxes grow quiet when everyone is moving around and need starts in their new location.
Picks for January 29, 2019:
Fast and chilly before the East climbs into the freezer midweek.
Parx Race 4
Maiden $40K for 3-year-old fillies at 6f. Of the six with prior starts, none have posted a speed figure that should win this race and their form progression is not great either. Instead look to the first timer from a barn that wins at 40% with firsters, despite a small sample set. 2-Ice Cream Party has a good work tab in preparing for this one and stands a chance to get jockey Tara Hynes into the winners circle.
$10 W/P/S 2-Ice Cream Party
Parx Race 9
Starter allowance for older boys at 6 ½ f. Big field for a race that looks like a first level allowance contest. Richard Vega will leg Jeremy Rose onto the 2-Popazar who could not get up in this spot at 6f last time. The added distance should help but look at a horse that finished behind the 2 last out, 4-Hatteras Bound, to turn the tables. 4-Hatteras Bound is second off the claim with a trainer that hits at 35% under that scenario. In addition, he draws Trevor McCarthy back into the saddle, the jockey that teamed with this one on his career best speed figure.
$20 W/P/S 4-Hatteras Bound
$5 Exacta 4/2
And now for a quickie.
Parx Race 1
Maiden $10K for older fillies and mares. Well somebody will win this race. 8-Deep Canyon looks OK for this level but does not deserve 2/5 on the M/L. Instead, look to 6-Lily Ain’t Foolin. She cuts back to the distance of her debut, a distance that fits her breeding as well. In addition, Herold Whylie wins at 20% second off the claim, a number much higher than his everyday strike rate.