Good luck and watch out for short priced favorites in small fields. Why? Last week’s issues with large fields have now given way to small fields due to the lifting of the quarantine at Parx (on the 31st) and the thinning of the colony at Aqueduct. Although field size remains robust at Laurel, both Parx and Aqueduct are struggling to get more than 7 in a field. This leads to many short priced favorites, especially from high percentage barns. This gives the opportunity to find less popular alternatives that may have experienced traffic trouble in the past but will get clear sailing in smaller fields AND get a better jockey as well. At the least, use this opportunity for some show pool wagers when favorites are getting hammered in the show pool and hope for the bridge jumpers.
Picks for January 26, 2019:
The rains are gone and the skies are clear so expect fast and chilly.
Aqueduct Race 3
Optional claiming $75K at 8f for NY bred 3-year-old fillies. Six and only six runners will make this interesting but don’t be surprised if the field shrinks before post time. Hard to see 6-Shelly Ann losing here on her best but the play would be to try to beat her OR hit the show pool and hope she doesn’t hit the board. 4-She Takes Charge has done nothing wrong to date but may not be good enough here to win. So . . . bet 4-She Takes Charge to show and hope that the 6 misses the Board.
$10 Show 4-She Takes Charge
Aqueduct Race 5
Maiden Special Weight NY bred boys. A 12-horse field with an entry. Lots of pedigree power here and almost no race experience. Of the two with a previous race, 1-Dr. Lloyd stands out having run an excellent race when in for maiden $50K last time. But that was in the slop and his pedigree screams slop aptitude. Instead look to the other Linda Rice runner, 2-Seven Is Heaven to show up first out. The works are solid and the Dylan Davis-Linda Race partnership is winning at a 56% clip.
$10 W/P/S 2-Seven Is Heaven
Parx Race 7
$20K maiden boys going 7f. This is an extended sprint due to the one turn. This allows outside horses to get awesome position and stalk, tuck in or lead at their preference. 9-Awe Mun appears well suited to doing just that having gone wide last time and shown some kick. No one else has shown winning speed so the alternative is the firster, 3-Joshuabullieved. The works aren’t awesome on the 3 so he may need this race.
$10 W/P/S 9-Awe Mun
Laurel Park Race 9
Optional Claimer for 3-year-old fillies at 6f. A six-horse field for a race with many having prior Stakes experience. Two second time starters coming off maiden scores are interesting but the better speed belongs to 4-Elverson. The issue with the last effort was the fade late. If you really like her here, you can buy her at the Fasig Tipton sale next week . . . Hip 458. Look instead at 5-Two Dozen Roses shipping in for Todd Pletcher. The cut back in distance should have this one rolling late. Win here and buy someone . . . two dozen roses?
$10 W/P/S 5-Two Dozen Roses
And now for some quickies….
Aqueduct Race 8 Jazil Stakes
The 9f distance screams for a true router and there are several in the race but the favorite 7-Sunny Ridge is not one of them. So does the class of the 7 trump the stamina of 5-Mr Buff? Nah.
Laurel Park Race 6
Maiden $16K for 3 year old fillies. A field full of well-intentioned inexperienced sorts. Looking for a precocious pedigree for firsters here and landing on 10-Suzette Star.
Parx Race 4
Maiden $10K for older boys. 4-Ajwibah is another amazingly well bred but unsuccessful horse from Shadwell that has now moved on after selling in November to current connections. Not much else to like here but no belief this is the right distance for the 4. Instead looking towards the outside to 7-Lucky Lover Boy to move up under the super patient Roberto Rosado.