Aqueduct Racetrack
Aqueduct RacetrackFrancesca LeDonne Photo/Aqueduct/NYRA

Horse Racing: McMudder’s Friday picks

Races from Aqueduct and Laurel

Good luck and watch out for traffic troubles in large fields. Why? With the recent cancellations and the number of 3-year-old races on many cards, there are many horses learning how to run in a large field. This can be a very difficult scenario to handicap, especially in maiden races loaded with first time starters. Look for horses that have run through difficulty in the past to step up in these fields unless there is a firster from a barn that has success getting winners first out.

Picks for January 25, 2019:

Thursday’s rain may linger long enough to keep the tracks wet on Friday and beyond. The surfaces will certainly not be frozen (yet?) and with the seals laid down due to the rain, expect speed to carry whether they are sloppy or muddy. The only caveat is a good, harrowed track could be very tiring, especially if the wind direction is against the horses in the lane.

Aqueduct Race 2
Optional claiming $40K non2 at 6f for NY bred fillies and mares. This race has a number of fillies that ran in the New York Stallion Series so there is a common history to work off. With that said, these are not runners on great form cycles. 2-Cartwheel may have needed the December race off the layoff and Mark Hennig has managed this one carefully. The off track pedigree is solid even if this one has yet to try. Look for 4-Fair Regis and 7-My Roxy Girl to make it interesting late.
$10 W/P/S 2-Cartwheel
$0.50 Trifecta box 2,4,7

Aqueduct Race 5
Open $10K claimer for fillies and mares. 8-Arewehavingfunyet looks to be a vulnerable favorite, especially given David Cannizzo’s 0% success rate dropping off the claim and 0% when teaming with Rey Gutierrez. Looking elsewhere gets value and off track form in 2-Slam Chowder. The race ratings on the $5K races at Parx are similar to the $10K and $12.5K races at Aqueduct so ignore the step up in claim price. With speed holding, look for 2-Slam Chowder to stay safe after sitting off the early speed from the sprinters on the stretch out.
$10 W/P/S 2-Slam Chowder

Laurel Park Race 4
$50K maiden boys going a mile. This is an extended sprint due to the one turn . . . or is it? The long lane at Laurel has been playing very fair recently with no bias except against the deepest of closers. 4-Inclunation is the only runner that has shown any interest in closing a race and that barely got him on the board last out almost two months ago. Rather, look to a horse that is stretching out for the first time with an excellent off track pedigree, 3-Marco Island. Mark Reid is winning at 30% when he legs Alex Cintron up and the continued improvement should pay off with the added distance.
$10 W/P/S 3-Marco Island

Laurel Park Race 9
Maiden $10K older boys with a big field. Time to review my earlier comments since this is a race filled with horses that could struggle due to post position and traffic. Historically, the post bias is strong to the outside but the difference can be significant between 8 and 13 when going 6 furlongs since it can mean going 7 wide into the turn and some inside horses have been getting great trips with holes opening at the top of the lane. 7-Seventyseven Force looks to be the well-priced favorite off the runner up finish last out but this one takes a step back if its sloppy and still looks vulnerable on faster going. Instead look to the rail, 1-The Mason Factor and hope he can get a good trip and the going is off. If the track is fast by this race, take a flyer on 2-Creepy the Crab who has suffered some brutal trips but gets Grant Whitacre to return to the saddle after a good result last out. Therefore, can’t bet this one until the track condition is known.
Sloppy: $10 W/P/S 1-The Mason Factor
Fast: $10 W/P/S 2-Creepy the Crab
$0.50 Trifecta box 1,2,7

And now for some quickies….

Aqueduct Race 8 Interborough Stakes
The 7f distance screams for a specialist and there are several in the race including 2-Dawn the Destroyer but got to go with 3-Sower based on this one’s consistency at 6 to 7 furlongs and disregard for track condition.

Laurel Park Race 6
Open $32K race for 3 year old fillies. A field full of well-intentioned losers. Virtually all of these fillies have been given a chance to be better and have failed. That accounts for the large number getting dropped and blinkers for this affair. Look to the middle of the field, 6-Yesterdaysplan to land for the 29% combination of Carlos Carrasco and Claudio Gonzalez.

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