Horse Racing: McMudder’s Sunday Picks
Good luck and look for more horses trying different surfaces. Why? This has been a historically wet year and many horses have very little fast dirt form. It looks like the Northeast is in for some cold, dry weather which will take tracks that have been moist for a long time and make them dry and cuppy. If it remains below freezing, it may become difficult to water the tracks between races just adding to the deep, desert-like surface. When this happens, looking deeper into the PPs is necessary to find out who handles the desert and who doesn’t.
Picks for Sunday, Jan. 13, 2019:
Snow or no snow? That is the question. The answer . . . who knows? The active snow should have cleared before race time so the main variables will be the amount of moisture and the temperature. Expect fast and harrowed but be concerned about frozen if too much moisture gets in and it is very cold.
Aqueduct Race 2
Optional claimer at $62.5K at 9f for boys. The $75K purse makes this feel like an overnight Stake. And the quality is here. 1-Stan the Man is a likely favorite but the price may be too short. Mick thinks the value will be outside with 6-Weather Wiz, a consistent sort that appears to have had a bad day last out. Confidence in Jimmy Jerkens to have this one ready and the distance has worked previously. And his name seems somehow appropriate this weekend.
Pick: $20 W/P/S 6-Weather Wiz
Aqueduct Race 3
$40K non-winners of 2 in their life. Short field but very well matched. Again, looking outside at the Brad Cox/Eric Cancel combination that is winning at a gaudy 40% with 6-Shamrock Kid. The move off of turf has helped this one and he would have been a winner at this distance in his last race. Lastly, a wet track moves him up.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 6-Shamrock Kid
Aqueduct Race 7 Rego Park Stakes
NY bred 3- year-old boys at 6½f in a Stake. Lots of lightly raced, fast types. After his win in the NY Stallion Stakes last out, 2-Blindwillie McTell appears to prefer the off going and will be at a short price. The same goes for 6-Thorny Tale. Find value in the hands of Hall of Famer Bill Mott, 7-Tiergan. Look for him to track the pace and pounce coming for home off the cut back in distance.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 7-Tiergan
Laurel Park Race 1
3-year-old fillies for $12.5K. This is the bottom level for 3-year-old winners in Maryland so everyone here is suspect. Two fillies in this race have won a one-turn mile race and that is key here since the stretch run at Laurel is looooong. Rather than separate 1-Full of Drama and 6-Dixie Do Good, combine them into a nice exacta and add some underneath value bets on 6-Dixie Do Good.
Pick: $10 Show 6-Dixie Do Good
Pick: $2 Exacta box 1,6
And now for some quickies….
Laurel Park Race 4
1-Stretch’s Stone seems to like drives down I-95. Today he gets another one as Bruce Levine sends him to Laurel after finding success at Parx 2 back. Look for more success in the Old Line State.
Laurel Park Race 5
Wes Hamilton is winning at 39% for Dale Capuano. Did Dale get an invite to the Eclipse Award courtesy of finalist Hamilton? He should have. Even after losing his bug, Hamilton has become Capuano’s go-to rider and looks to continue that success on 1-Bye Bye Blues, an ultra-consistent sort that took a while to get to the races but has shown up big since his arrival. Ben’s Cat made his first start for a tag at 4. Just saying.
Aqueduct Race 8
4-La Cat Warrior looks unbeatable here. Value may be with the 8-Wheresthebarber from Jason Servis who wins at 40% after winning maiden last out. Look for exotics with these two keyed.