Horse Racing: Garrity’s Saturday Stakes

We're all about the stakes racing on Saturdays, here in our little corner by the sixteenth-pole, and while we will get to the stakes races later, we want to start with an esoteric handicapping angle that could present an opportunity for a score. To find it, we will be going down to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. All the attention down there is on the Eagles-Saints game tomorrow, but we just might have doped something out that will allow the visiting Eagles fans to win a few shekels to offset the cost of their trip.

The 7th race at the Fair Grounds is a non-winners of two for fillies and mares 4-and-older. It's a mile and a sixteenth on the turf with a field of 13, and as any serious railbird knows, big fields are what bettors want, because they make big scores much more possible.

There are a few logical contenders, like the lukewarm favorite, 7-Coachwhip, a Jack Sisterson trainee who's 3-1 on the morning line. But we're going to look at a horse who on first glance looks to have little shot. That's the 8-Queen of Connaught.

This is an English-bred, 4-year-old gray filly who has raced mostly in England, where she did fairly well against some decent competition. She was brought to the United States in the fall, and her first start was in a listed stakes race in September at Laurel.

There's no way to sugarcoat her effort that day: it was dismal. She was rank, she ran wide, and then she threw in the towel, finishing dead last, more than 52 lengths behind the winner. Based solely on that, she looks like an automatic toss.

But the turf that day was yielding, which is no surprise, given all the rain on the East Coast the past 12 months. One would think that a Euro-bred horse would relish the soft going, but we've found that not to be the case: the old handicapping axiom to upgrade European turf horses when there's a cut in the grass is very often wrong. Some Euro horses want firm turf, and in fact that is the reason some are brought to the United States: their connections are looking for the firm footing that the race courses in Europe, especially in England and Ireland, so rarely see.

Queen of Connaught looks like this kind of horse to us. Her better races in England were on good to firm turf courses, and with a chance to run on over genuinely firm ground, we think she has a big shot at a big price. She is handled by Tom Morley, a very competent trainer, so we'll take the M/L 12-1 odds, and we'll bet $25 on her to win.

Due to the expected mid-Atlantic snowstorm, we are passing on the card at Laurel today, despite the fact that they have a few playable stakes races. But there's too much uncertainty with the condition of the track to recommend a play there.

There's are a couple of Grade III stakes at Gulfstream today, the Tropical Turf, Race 9, which goes a mile on the grass for older horses. We'll pass on it, as favored 6-Heart to Heart (4/5 morning line) appears to lay over the field, and should win at a miserly price. Keep an eye on the tote board, however, as if the public lets him get off at 6/5 or more, he will be worth a flutter. But at even money or less, he is not a play.

The 11th at Gulfstream is the Marshua’s River, a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf for older filled and mares. We like 7-La Signare, a French-bred 4-year-old filly whose inexperience -- she's run only five times -- is offset by natural ability. She set the pace and faded in the 10-furlong, Grade I Belmont Oaks in July; at this shorter distance, and against this much weaker group, we think she merits a win play. We'll bet $20 on her to win.

The Say Florida Sandy is a $100,000 overnight stakes at Aqueduct, for New York-breds, and fortunately for us, today’s big snowstorm is likely to miss the Big A. This is serendipitous for us, as we like 7-Syndergaard: a repeat of his last race puts him right there, and he's 8-1. We think he's found his niche, sprinting against state breds, so we'll bet $10 on Syndergaard to win.

Santa Anita, like Gulfstream, has two Grade 3 stakes: the Las Cienegas (Race 6) is older females going 6 1/2 furlongs down the hillside turf; the La Canada is Race 8, and is for older females going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. We'll pass on the La Canada, primarily because of a short field; but we like 4-Belvoir Bay, in the Las Cienegas. Favored 5-Selcourt (2-1) last ran in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and while she's obviously enormously talented, and it's even more obvious that she's dead fit -- she ran a bullet 5 furlongs a week ago -- she's never run on grass, and figures to be overbet because her last race was in the Breeders Cup . Belvoir Bay is an ace down the hill in Arcadia: she's won 4 of 5 starts over the course, and that's good enough for us: we'll take 5-2 on Belvoir Bay, and bet $20 on her to win.

That's it for today. We'll see you on the rail next week, and until then, good luck at the windows.