Good luck and look for horses moving to new venues. Why? Horses move because their connections are trying to find the right level of competition. In May that means 3-year-olds head to Kentucky. Now, it means horses that couldn’t make money at larger tracks are headed elsewhere. New arrivals often meet with success due to lesser competition but also new trainers, riders and surfaces.
Picks for January 7, 2019:
Saturday’s rains should be distant memories on Monday at Parx but the cool temperatures and cloud cover will do little to dry out the track. Look for fast but the surface should retain considerable moisture. And we have a new track . . .
Parx Race 2
A very even race for $5K older boys at 7f. The distance makes it more interesting since about half the runners are stretching out and half are shortening up. Closers suffered in the slop on Saturday but the track should allow some off the pace horses to get up once it dries out. The most likely to benefit from the distance is the 8-Mach Trial. He has won at 7f, stalks well and is 12/17 in the money lifetime on a fast main track. Ignoring the 0% trainer here.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 8-Mach Trial
Parx Race 3
How’s this for an angle? Jockey fell off last race. That’s the angle here. 3-No More Fast Women has run in three stakes races since breaking her maiden in August at Presque Isle. The knock is that she has never been on fast dirt and her pedigree screams turf. The upside is that her dam won a stake at a mile on dirt and her half-sister won a stake on dirt at 7f. Trusting 18% trainer Lou Linder to drop the 20/1 bomb here.
Pick: $20 W/P/S 3-No More Fast Women
Parx Race 7
As much as Mick liked 4-Buzzkillington’s last race, this one sets up for a bounce on the return to a dry track. Looking for a runner capable of returning to form points to 8-Helloitsme. Coming from a barn that is 22+% second off the claim.
$5 W/P/S 8-Helloitsme
Mahoning Valley Race 2
Headed off to greater Youngstown to find Monday racing. 2-Roll Tide Roll seems destined to run well on FBS Championship night, right? But more importantly, he fits the bill for a horse going to a smaller venue to get class relief. This guy last won at Saratoga. He has tons of back class and is moving to a new barn at Mahoning. 2b-Forbidden Way is on a two race win streak and comes from out of town, too. Bet the invaders.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 2-Roll Tide Roll/2b-Forbidden Way
And now for some quickies….
Parx Race 9
3-Bow Town Cat came to Parx for class relief two back and was haltered by Joe Taylor. This is a step back to the company this one was keeping at Belmont in the summer. She has never been out of the money at Parx. Welcome home Mamma.
Mahoning Valley Race 3
Jay Bernardini is not afraid to load his horses and ship for the right race. 9-Seeing’n’believing should finally be home assuming the distance is not a furlong too far.
Mahoning Valley Race 5
Virtually every racing secretary in America writes state-bred races at this point. This race is a prime example of why it matters. Purse increase of $3900 over the open $8K race and none of these have success in open company. The closest to breaking through, 9-Purple Flowers, appears the pick here.