Horse Racing: Mick McMudder’s Saturday Picks
Good luck and discount turf horses. Why? Because at this time of year, the good horses that perform on the turf are in Florida and California, the OK ones are on a farm and only the poor ones are left to eke out a living on the dirt. It doesn’t help that the only all-weather is at Turfway Park, home of the worst purses in Kentucky. But be careful of the all-turf horse that hasn’t been on the dirt previously. Sometimes connections get it wrong and run on the wrong surface for a while. You know, horses like Barbaro.
Picks for January 5, 2019:
Rain will come . . . who knows when. At best, there will be moisture in all the tracks. At worst, they are quagmires. This means watch for scratches and short priced favorites not suited to the current surface. Welcome to January. At least there is no snow in the forecast.
Santa Anita Race 9 Sham Stakes
10 Kentucky Derby Points to the winner . . .5-Coliseum. The good people in California enjoy breaking down everything Bob Baffert says about his 3-year-old horses. The translation of his recent comments on Coliseum sound like “even if he is green and may go around the outer rail, he is really, really good and should win if Joe Talamo can stay on.” Works for Mick but there will be no value. The value may be betting the OTHER really good Baffert horse underneath.
Pick: $5 P/S 7-Much Better
Aqueduct Race 2
Steve Asmussen wins at above 20% everywhere he runs EXCEPT in NYC. Why? Lots of really good horses and really successful connections. As a result, it is hard to bet Asmussen horses even when they are well intentioned like 1-Trustworthy. But today should be Trustworthy’s day. Small field, rail and lone speed. He will either win or be in front for most of it.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 1-Trustworthy
Aqueduct Race 8 La Verdad Stakes
Chester and Mary Broman have been in the game for a long time. They breed really good horses and win lots of races but it is great to see them with a nice filly like 10-Pauseforthecause. The shame here is that this is a really tough race for NY bred fillies and mares. And the specialist distance of 7f makes it hard and the unusual careers of many of the runners doesn’t help. A 6-year-old making her 6th career start? A Maryland jockey coming to ride a 12/1 shot? Another Chad Brown mare making her 7th career start at 5? Time to bust out the exotics! Betting Brown, Brown, Mott and McLaughlin.
Pick: $0.10 Superfecta Box 3,7,9,10
Parx Race 9
PA bred restricted allowance going 5½f. These are some fast horses but there is one horse with connections that screams . . . FAST! 6-Tale of E Dubai invades from out of town for 38% win trainer Kevin Patterson and admitted speed freak owner RC Cole. These guys are usually dominating the 4½f races at Charles Town with regular pilot Arnaldo Bocachica aboard. The problem? The Parx strip has been very deep and tiring and the 5½ distance has been playing to the closers. So who closes? Look for 2-Gurt Boys and 8-Midnightcharly to be rolling late. Since Mick can’t separate them it’s time to get exotic again.
Pick: $1 Trifecta 2,8/2,8/5,6
Laurel Park Race 7
An open $20K older boys race at the one-turn mile. At Laurel, that makes for a very long stretch since they break from the 7f gate and continue to the second wire. The long stretch is the undoing of many horses but one that seems to relish it is 3-Dattt Melody. The 9-year-old seems to be in good form, won at track and distance last out and picks up Victor Carrasco to ride.
Pick: $10 W/P/S 3-Dattt Melody
And now for some quickies….
Laurel Park Race 5
One thing for sure, this race will go slow. Who wins for being the least slow? Let’s go 1-Animal Lady. Shortest route around with a pilot that can finish in Taylor Hole.
Parx Race 10
Michelle Nevin has a pair here, 9-One Cool Kitten and 11-Esther the Queen. Mick’s guess is that she will happy if they both get claimed but may run 1-2 as well. Try the exacta box.