Jordan Spieth plays a shot from a bunker on the fifth hole during round-robin play at the Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament on March 28, 2019.
Jordan Spieth plays a shot from a bunker on the fifth hole during round-robin play at the Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament on March 28, 2019.Eric Gay | Associated Press

Golf: Kern takes an educated guess deep in the heart of The Valero Texas Open

OK, so last week’s match play championship didn’t go so well. None of my three picks made it to the knockout rounds. So be it. Match play is a different animal. No excuse, just an explanation. The good news for me was that I had for whatever reasons I had taken Kevin Kisner back in December in my yearlong pool, where I get whatever money he wins. Only because he’d finished second last year. But he hadn’t done much this year. Still, as the 48th seed in the 64-man field, he wound up winning. After he advanced out of the group stage by beating Ian Poulter in a playoff. Go figure. I know that doesn’t do anything for anyone who played one of my three guys, but it at least made me feel a little better. Moved me up from like next-to-last to Ms. Congeniality in the standings. I love a challenge.

So much for that. On to the Valero Texas Open, in San Antonio, which this year is being played the week before the Master instead of in May. This used to the slot on the schedule for the Houston Open. Changes happen. Because it’s the week before Augusta, the field isn’t much. Yet there’s still going to be a winner, so we might as well try to figure out who it could be.

And for the record, I have Henrik Stenson this week in the year-long thing. Of course not even playing, I’m assuming because of the new date. I should have taken that into consideration when I made my projections. I blame myself for not paying better attention.

The favorite this week is Rickie Fowler, at 10-1. Tony Finau is 14, Matt Kuchar 16. None has done much in stroke-play events lately, though Fowler and Kuchar did win earlier this season and Kuchar lost in the finals last week. Again, it was match play. But you still have to play well. I wouldn’t go with any of them, mainly on the premise that you can get some good odds from other folks who might have almost as good of a chance. Those three, especially Fowler and Kuchar, might already be looking ahead a bit to the first major of 2019.

Jordan Spieth, who is still trying to recapture his No. 1 form, is 20. Jim Furyk, who’s been playing very well for an old man, is 25. As is Billy Horschel, Jason Kokrak and Sungjae Im. Lucas Glover and An Byeong Hung are at 33. Li Haotong, Lucas Bjerregard, Jhonattan Vegas, Ryan Moore, Graeme McDowell and Charley Hoffman follow at 40. Jimmy Walker is 50, defending champ Andrew Landry 80.

Spieth hasn’t played in this since 2015. Horschel has three top 11s in his last four starts here. Im is somebody who’s really good that most people haven’t heard of. Bjerregard just played really well at the match play. Walker won here four years ago. McDowell won last week, for the first time in awhile. Hoffman won here in 2016 and was runner-up in 2011. Kokrak came in second in his last start, at Valspar.

Let’s be clear here: whichever three blokes I give out are going to be stabs. This is a tough one to handicap, just because. But we’ll give it a try, as always.

I’ll take Horschel, based on his past performance at this place, Hoffman, using basically the same logic, and Kokrak/Im. OK, so that’s four. Sue me. It’s that kind of week. They’re all at least relatively longer odds, so I’m not giving you any chalks. Probably none of them will even be in the picture come Sunday, but somebody has to be. My educated guesses can be as right on as any.

Maybe we can at least build back some momentum heading to Magnolia Lane. But tread carefully out there. This is not the kind of week to go too crazy.

Better get those green jackets ready.

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