While the Vikings as a three-point favorite seems spot-on here, the Total (in the 44 area) seems a little high . . . until you see the Eagles have allowed 27, 24, 27 and 27 points in their four non-Jets games and have posted at least 20+ themselves in all five contests and 30+ in three of them.
Not enough to go lay money down, but in our early morning haze we could make a case for either way . . .
>>> The second-quarter points totals in all Eagles and Vikings games combined this season is 154. Next closest is the fourth (101). League-wide, the second usually is the highest scoring period, so we will partake at +190 (FOX Bet).
Highest Scoring Quarter, Second . . . $5 / $9.50
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>>> The Eagles’ defense buried the hapless Jets last week and they did thwart Aaron Rodgers’ last two drives the week before. They have held opponents to no positive yardage on 35 of their last 72 plays.
The Vikings have already registered one safety this season, so let’s see if one of the teams can’t rack one of those two-pointers up Sunday (+1150 DraftKings).
Safety, Yes . . . $2 / $25.00
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>>> We can see where the defenses will bend but will not breake early on, so let’s play a field goal to be the first scoring play ($3 on each team). The Eagles are +400 at DraftKings; Minny is +340 at William Hill.
First Scoring Play –
Eagles FG . . . $3 / $12.00
Vikings FG . . . $3 / $10.20
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>>> Before Nate Gerry's Pick 6 Sunday against the Jets, the Eagles had gone 1,300+ opponent snaps since scoring any kind of return touchdown, then they did so twice in the span of 31 plays.
These things come in bunches, so let’s get behind it this week at Fan Duel (+500 Any) and William Hill (+2500 Last TD).
Eagles Defense/Special Teams To Score --
Any Touchdown . . . $5 / $25.00
First TD of Game . . $1 / $25.00
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>>> We think Doug Pederson committed to Jordan Howard as his main running back this week during a press conference, but who can really tell in coach-speak any more. Let’s go with it anyway, since FanDuel has a yardage total (47.5, -118) and attempt total (11.5, -102) that Howard has surpassed in each of the last two games.
Howard Over 47.5 Rushing Yards . . . $6 / $5.08
Howard Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts . . . $5 / $4.90
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>>> We found an 8-yard spread in Carson Wentz Passing Yardage Totals (242.5 FanDuel -112; 250.5 Draft Kings -111), so we’ll try to middle with very little at stake (54 cents is the most we can lose).
Wentz Over 242.5 Passing Yards . . . $5 / $4.46
Wentz Under 250.5 Passing Yards . . . $5 / $4.50
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>>> With Corey Clement and Darren Sproles out, the Eagles added running back Boston Scott to the active roster from the practice squad on Friday. He should sneak in for at least some snaps, so let’s take a stab at him also hitting paydirt since FanDuel was on the ball enough to include his TD Odds (+1300 Any, +3500 First).
Boston Scott to Score --
Any Touchdown . . . $3 / $39.00
First TD of Game . . $1 / $35.00
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>>> We would really like to get behind rookie wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside and and have some money down on him when he finally breaks through, but after some lukewarm performances in Weeks 2 and 3, he has gotten just eight offensive snaps in the last two games, so it’s not worth the gamble.
Instead, we’ll go back to one of our favorites and look for a big game from Dallas Goedert, whose best odds for Any TD (+600) and First TD (+2500) are both out of FanDuel.
Dallas Goedert to Score --
Any Touchdown . . . $5 / $30.00
First TD of Game . . $3 / $75.00
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>>> Unlike JJAW, Mack Hollins has been getting snaps (70) and targets (3) at wide receiver over the last two weeks, so we’ll go with him, again with FanDuel odds (+700, +3300).
Mack Hollins to Score --
Any Touchdown . . . $5 / $35.00
First TD of Game . . $2 / $66.00
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>>> By our count, that’s $59 we have laid out. Let’s make it an even $60 just in case Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins decide to throw the ball up and down the field all day long and make huge dents in the scoreboard. FanDuel has an Alternative Total of 65.5 at +1100. Let’s go with that.
Eagles-Vikings Over 65.5 . . . $1 / $11.00
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