Considering that the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers hasn’t lost a September home game (14-0-1) since Randy Wolf was pitching for the Brewers 100 or so miles to the South (September, 2012) . . .
. . . and that the Eagles’ receivers couldn’t catch a cold if they spent all of December wrapping Chirstmas presents on the 50-yard line of Lambeau Field with damp hair . . .
. . . it’s hard to believe that the Birds have any chance of coming out of Green Bay a with victory late Thursday night.
So we turn to the Over/Under Totals. They are 46.5 for the game, 20.5 for the Eagles.
Despite the offensive woes this season, Philly has put up 20+ points in their last 9 regular season games and in 10 of their last 11 road games. The Birds’ Over should be safe, and if the Pack is to cover, so is the 46.5, so we will smoke out a little higher alternate for that.
Eagles Over 20.5 Points (+100) . . . $5 / $5
Game Over 51 Points (+155) . . . $5 / $7.75
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♦ The Eagles managed to score – twice! – in the first quarter last week. The Packers posted a 14 in the first 15 minutes of Week 2 and had a TD last week. It’s worth 7-1 that the teams start with a track meet before slowing it down.
Highest Scoring Quarter, First (+700) . . . ($3 / $21)
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♦ With the explosive Rodgers on the other sideline and his own penchant for going for it on fourth down, we don’t see Doug Pederson settling for many field goals. If there are going to be any three-pointers, it’ll be the Pack.
Team to Make First FG, Packers (-116) . . . $5 / $4.31
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♦ He’s probably gonna go for more than this if the Eagles are battling from behind, but since we found an 11-yard gap in Carson Wentz’ passing yards, we’re gonna go for the middle. The most we can lose is $0.95, and if we nail it we can reap $8.51.
Wentz Passing Yards --
Over 263.5 (-112 FD) . . . $5 / $4.46
Under 274.5 (-124 DK) . . . $5 / $4.05
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♦ We hit on both Eagles running backs on Yardage and Attempts Over last week in a loss, no less. Will probably be a little harder to do this week, but let’s try them both again for the heck of it, especially since Jordan Howard is a +115 to go Over 31.5 Yards. We will hedge slightly on the Attempts wagers just a little (where the odds are better anyway).
Miles Sanders Rushing –
Over 45.5 Yards (-112) . . . $5 / $4.50
Over 12.5 Attempts (+124) . . $4 / $4.96
Jordan Howard Rushing –
Over 31.5 Yards (+115) . . . $5 / $5.75
Over 9.5 Attempts (+120) . . . $4 / $4.80
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♦ We had all intentions of staying away from betting on an Eagles to score the First Touchdown Thursday, but two very high odds jumped out to us.
Running back Corey Clement is listed as questionable, but 100-1 (DraftKings) is 100-1. If he doesn’t play, we get the Washington back. Worth a shot.
Tight end Dallas Goedert – who dropped a sure TD pass last week and had three First TDs last season (one in the playoff game against the Bears) – should in no way be 50-1 (PointsBet) for a team that would like to play two tight ends a lot.
First TD in Game, Clement (+10000) . . . ($1 / $100)
First TD in Game, Goedert (+5000) . . . ($1 / $50)
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♦ We will also slip Clement (+2200) and Goedert (+850) into our Any TD Props, since those numbers are equally high, although we will temper the Clement wager in case he tries to play and then can’t finish.
We also like the high Points Bet odds on Darren Sproles (+500), who can squirt into the end zone any time, from anywhere.
Any TD in Game, Clement (+2200) . . . ($2 / $44)
Any TD in Game, Goedert (+850) . . . ($5 / $42.50)
Any TD in Game, Sproles (+500) . . . ($5 / $25)
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