Happy football season . . . And good luck trying to traverse the many different betting options out there this NFL season.
We have some Prop Bets you might consider for the Eagles-Redskins game in Week 1. If you don't like any of these, there are probably only a couple of hundred more out there . . .
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♦ According to pro-football-reference.com, the Eagles have been favored by 10 or more points three times under Doug Pederson. They won those games by 9, 23 and 28 points. They also have wins of 24 (vs. Redskins), 28 and 27 points as six-point favorites. Those numbers and the fact that the Eagles’ have more offensive weaponry than any war video game you can play, leads me to confidently invest in some alternate spread bets. We’ll reverse pyramid four of them, wagering a total of $10:
-13.0 (+130) . . . $4 to win $5.20
-17.5 (+225) . . . $3 to win $6.75
-20.5 (+320) . . . $2 to win $6.40
-23.5 (+460) . . . $1 to win $4.60
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♦ As much confidence as we have in the Eagles’ offense, none exists in the defense once you get passed the front four. The LBs are still a little dinged up and the Birds just have not had much luck at DB the last couple of seasons. So, assuming Washington moves the ball up and down the field some, we’re gonna do the same with the alternate totals as we did with the alternate spreads:
Over 47.5 (-130) . . . $4 to win $5.20
Over 51.5 (-220) . . . $3 to win $6.60
Over 55.5 (-340) . . . $2 to win $6.80
Over 595. (-500) . . . $1 to win $5.00
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♦ Last season we had a lot of fun – and a little success – with the First TD Prop, especially in Eagles games. (Thank You, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery!)
But at least to start this season, we are taking a different approach, that is betting on Eagle players to score a touchdown at any point during the game. Yes, the odds are much lower, but you can cash in more than once a game (although just once per player).
So we went and found the best odds we could across a half-dozen sites on the Eagles’ Top 12 skill players and laid $1 on each:
$1 / $1.40 . . . Zach Ertz
$1 / $2.20 . . . Alshon Jeffery
$1 / $1.63 . . . Jordan Howard
$1 / $1.65 . . . Miles Sanders
$1 / $2.90 . . . Dallas Goedert
$1 / $3.00 . . . DeSean Jackson
$1 / $5.00 . . . Nelson Agholor
$1 / $4.00 . . . Arcega-Whiteside
$1 / $5.50 . . . Carson Wentz
$1 / $6.00 . . . Darren Sproles
$1 / $10.00 . . . Mack Hollins
$1 / $9.50 . . . Corey Clement
It will take a couple of different players scoring and at least one relative long shot, but for $12 on Opening Day, it's worth taking a look.
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♦ We wanted to do something with the first quarter, where the Eagles are -2.5, but they led by 3 or more after 15 minutes just four times last season, and just once in the first 11 games.
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♦ We will go for the Over 2.5 Touchdowns in the second half. That’s probably going to be a no-brainer in every Eagles game this season.
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♦ It’s early, so let’s try a little razzle-dazzle and try to middle Carson Wentz’ passing yards :
Over 275.5 (-112) . . . FanDuel ($5/$4.46)
Under 287.5 (-115) . . . DraftKing ($5/4.35)
In the end, it is going to most likely going to cost us a few pennies on the vig, but a 12-yard difference seemed like a good bull’s-eye at which to to aim.
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♦ If you wanted to do the same with Zach Ertz’ receiving yards, you could go Ov60.5 and Un67.5, but you’d have to lay -134 on the Under, which is a little to steep a price for a guy who was under that number seven times in his record-setting, 116-catch season last year.
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♦ Between DeSean Jackson (NFL record 24 touchdowns of 60 yards or longer; 10 more from 40-59) and the Eagles’ back-line defense being iffy, we have great faith in the longest TD of the day being Over 39.5 yards (-112). So, we will put down our last $5 of the game on that.
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In most of EUROPE:
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In parts of AFRICA:
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