Best March Madness Longshot Bets for the 2024 NCAA Tournament
While everyone seems to be on UConn repeating this March, let’s look in a different direction. Our longshot champion, longshot Final Four, and Most Outstanding Player picks are here, including a Mountain West team to make the run to the final stage once again.
Longshot Champion
Auburn Tigers (+1700)
Our first longshot champion pick comes in the form of the Auburn Tigers, who can defend at a high level to compete against any team in the country. While their guard play needs an uptick in the tournament, the Tigers are coming off an SEC Tournament championship and are led by a few upperclassmen forwards who can drive opponents nuts on both ends.
Auburn’s path is the easiest of any four seed until their potential matchup with UConn. Projecting the Huskies to get a nice scare by FAU in the Round of 32, that Sweet 16 matchup should go either way. If Auburn can get past the favorites in Boston, they should become the favorite to win it all at that point with all the momentum they will possess.
Bruce Pearl has been here before, leading the 2019 Tigers to the Final Four as a five seed, just 1 possession away from a championship appearance. Looking at KenPom, Auburn ranks 4th as a 4 seed. Sounds familiar? Last year’s champion UConn was 4th as a 4 seed. Watch for history to repeat itself in the East region.
Long Shot Final Four Picks
Nevada Wolfpack (+3000)
West Region
I’m 50/50 on Arizona being taken down in the Round of 32. If they do, it will be due to the elite guard play Nevada possesses in Kenan Blackshear (6’6 Point Guard) and Jarod Lucas (Sharpshooter).
Nevada will play their first two games at “home” in Salt Lake City. Dayton and Arizona will both have to adapt to the altitude which plays in the ‘Pack’s favor. Steve Alford couldn’t take his team to the promised land with the Bruins, but with the Mountain West competition playing much tougher than the Pac 12 this season, look for Nevada to potentially shock the Wildcats as they match up extremely well in the guard positions.
Alford should throw zone at Lloyd’s team, who struggled to break it against Oregon in one of the worst 2nd halves we’ve seen from the ‘Cats since the Sean Miller days.
Drake Bulldogs (+5500)
East Region
I’m all in on Drake this March. Tucker DeVries is an NBA level scorer and similar to FAU last season, Drake’s path to a Final Four run could be sparked by a close Round 1 win. Their games against Washington State and most likely, Iowa State will be played in Omaha.
A potential home game for the Bulldogs, look for them to stump Iowa State in the Round of 32 due to their great ability to knock down shots and take care of the basketball.
Creighton Bluejays (+400)
Midwest Region
The Bluejays are one of the more complete and “old” teams in the nation. Between a 3x DPOY in the Big East to some elite shotmaking between Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman, McDermott’s squad has it all. Creighton will play in Pittsburgh against Akron and the winner of Oregon/South Carolina, two squads that they will match up well against.
Don’t forget, Creighton beat UConn by nearly 20 points less than a month ago and have made the Sweet 16 or better in two of the last three tournaments. They are a solid bet to get to the Elite Eight for a potential matchup with Purdue.
Wisconsin Badgers (+1500)
South Region
Wisconsin might have the toughest path to the Final Four of any five seed. However, I believe the Big 10 squad isn’t getting enough love. They are more physical than both JMU and Duke, and have a few star guards in Chucky Hepburn and A.J. Storr, and can play the small ball extremely well.
While the game against Houston might be one of the lowest scoring games in the tournament, I don’t think they get blown out by anyone in this tournament with Storr’s potential breakout.
After four straight losses to drop them out of the top 25 mid season, look for this team to make a mark in March Madness, especially after they squeak past James Madison in the Round of 64. Guard play wins in March, and the Badgers have it.