Tennis: Looking at the Dubai Quarters

Dubai Duty Free Championships
Dubai, U.A.E.
Quarterfinal picks

Roger Federer over Marton Fucsovics
Federer has now played two matches in Dubai and has given up a set in each match. That either tells me that he’s not playing particularly well, or that he’s competing as well as he has to to win his matches. I think it’s the latter. This upcoming match against Marton Fucsovics, a 27-year-old Hungarian currently ranked No. 35, will be a rematch of their 2018 Round of 16 match at the Australian Open that Federer won in straight sets. Considering that Fed has admitted to having trouble playing in the conditions present in Dubai, particularly the swirling wind, and that he’s proved vulnerable in each of his first two matches, I’d bet that this match will be closer than anticipated. Additionally, Fucsovics is coming off of two consecutive straight set victories here, over Damir Dzumhur and Jan-Lennard Struff, which means that he’s playing well and carrying a lot of confidence into this matchup. But realistically, no matter how well Fucsovics is playing, no matter how much confidence he carries into this match, and no matter how many years younger than Fed that he is, none will carry him to this upset. Federer is still the man to beat, and I think he really wants to get a chance to avenge his Fourth Round exit at this year’s Australian Open four weeks ago to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Based on the draw, that rematch can only take place in the finals here. My guess is that Fed gets there.

Gael Monfils over Ricardas Berankis
Watching Monfils take the third set at love over Milos Raonic was like watching Nolan Ryan throw a no-hitter. It was dominating, he showed his excellence, and it was a thing of beauty. He followed that win up with a straight set dismissing of Marcos Baghdatis, which further showcased how well the exciting Frenchmen is playing. But Berankis is playing his own brand of excellent tennis, having taken out both the tough Daniil Medvedev and Denis Kudla in straight sets, seemingly cruising. However, Monfils is a better athlete, has more speed, more power, more experience, and more intangibles than the Lithuanian, and although this might be tight, I think Monfils walks away with his third straight win. These guys haven’t played since 2014, when Monfils had little trouble dispatching Berankis, and although Berankis should be much more competitive now, Monfils appears to be single-minded in his quest for excellence here.

Stefanos Tsitsipas over Hubert Hurkacz
Hurkacz, a 22-year-old Pole, is having a great tournament. The 77th ranked 6’5” player from Wroclaw only has 31 Tour matches in his short career, but overpowered both the French qualifier Corentin Moutet and top-seeded Kei Nishikori to position him for this match with Tsitsipas. The win over 6th ranked Nishikori was particularly impressive, as Hurkacz dominated the third set 6-2, just when Nishikori would normally impose his will on most opponents. Still, Tsitsipas rolled over Egor Gerasimov 6-3, 6-1, with seeming ease, in the second round, and appears to be headed for what he hopes is a rematch with Roger Federer in the finals. Taking one step at a time, I think Tsitsipas is a better all-court player than the Pole, but Hurkacz serves big-time, and will probably force a third set. When the day is over, the 20-year-old with the all-court game will take the match from the 22-year-old who serves bombs.