Scoot Henderson Out
Blake Wesley Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Damian Lillard Out
Dorian Finney-Smith Out
Fred VanVleet Out
The Blazers are on the road tonight to face Houston in their second NBA Cup game. After a stunning win against Denver to open their Cup campaign, Portland sits at 1-0, while Houston is 0-1. However, one game doesn’t define these teams' seasons so far, as Houston appears ready for a deep run this year. Houston is currently 7-3 on the season, while Portland stands at 6-5. It may not be a huge gap, but Portland is definitely the underdog heading into Houston tonight.
Houston has been a defensive juggernaut this year with long, rangy wings like Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. They are currently ranked 6th for opponent points per game at just 113. Their offense is averaging 124 points per game, giving them one of the best differentials in the league. Kevin Durant has been the key to this success. His offense has opened up the floor for Sengun and Thompson to thrive. Even with VanVleet out for the season, they’re leading the league in three-point percentage at 43%. While that may probably decline as the season progresses, it’s an impressive jump from last year. Their ability to attack the rim or kick it out has been lethal all season.
For Portland, this is still a growing season with completely different expectations from Houston. However, they’ve made some significant progress as a team defensively this year. The group has been causing problems for opponents all season, with wins over OKC, Denver, and the Lakers. Their perimeter defense has been one of their most impressive developments. They’re contesting threes like maniacs, and it’s working. Portland’s opponent three-point shooting is in the bottom 8 of the league at just 34%. However, this has opened up the middle of the court considerably, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 49% from the field. That’s the concerning part for Portland when facing Houston. The Rockets can dominate inside the arc, which will make it challenging for Portland to keep up.
Overall, this matchup will be tough for Portland. With skilled big men and size to defend the paint, Houston won’t make anything easy inside. However, since much of Portland’s offense relies on threes, a hot shooting night could keep this game close. Still, it’s hard to see Portland winning this one on the road. Houston is simply the better, more well-rounded team. That’s why I’m taking the Rockets’ moneyline, the under on 236.5 points, and the Portland spread at +7.5.
Money line: POR (+270) / HOU (-340)
Total Points: 236.5
Spread: +7.5 POR (-108) / -7.5 HOU (-112)
Sengun has been dominating again this year, averaging 22 points per game. He’s been somewhat inconsistent in scoring this season, but against Portland, he should perform well. Even with Donovan Clingan in the paint, Portland has been relatively easy for big men to score in the paint. Even rookie Derick Queen scored 26 points against Portland on Wednesday. With Sengun’s ability to find gaps in the paint, he should have plenty of opportunities to score.
Clingan has faced challenges in development this year. Portland's offense mainly relies on a drive-and-kick approach, which often leaves the 7’2 big man beyond the three-point line. Although he has hit a few three-pointers, he’s shooting under 20% from deep and isn't getting many opportunities at the rim. Since Portland depends on Avdija, Grant, and Holiday to attack the basket, having a big like Clingan down low only congests the paint. Considering the size of the Rockets, Clingan will likely struggle to get clean looks around the rim tonight.
While Camara has risen to become one of the top defenders in the league, Houston will pose a challenge for him. He’ll likely be tasked with guarding Kevin Durant, which means he won't easily get steals or blocks. He also won't be able to shift off his man to intercept passes. Especially if he gets into foul trouble, he’ll find it hard to make aggressive defensive plays.
Thompson continues to develop into one of the best defenders in the league. Facing Portland should provide him with numerous defensive opportunities. With limited depth at the ball handler position, Portland will likely see Avdija bringing the ball up the court frequently. His tendency to drive hard into the paint should give Thompson chances to deflect the ball or block shots. Especially with Portland’s streaky perimeter shooting, the ball is likely to find its way into the paint, where Thompson can make some defensive plays.