NBA Saturday: Frank on Sixers v Nets, Nuggets v Spurs, Bucks v Pistons
Sixers (-1.5) @ Nets (232)
Pick: Nets First Half +0.5
Full disclosure: I am on a cold streak with these game picks after a couple more losers Friday. I also have no idea who is going to win this game in Brooklyn. The momentum looks like it’s with the Sixers, but in this case, momentum is only as good as JJ Redick’s next three-point attempt. Phily continued to shoot well in Game 3, Ben Simmons played arguably the best game of his career and the Sixers won comfortably sans Joel Embiid. It doesn’t look like Embiid is going to play Saturday afternoon either, so can you really trust the Sixers to win back-to-back road playoff games without him? You also can’t trust Brooklyn to play defense either so that doesn’t make the Nets’ full game side that appealing. I don’t feel comfortable going over a total above 230 in the playoffs despite these two teams scoring with ease the last two games. That makes a derivative play the only one I can make here and I’m going to take Brooklyn to at least be tied with the Sixers at half. While Indiana did not cover the first half spread Friday night as we lost by the hook, the more desperate team did take a lead into the locker room that it eventually couldn’t hold. Oklahoma City was also in a must-win spot at home and had a double-digit lead at half. Give me Brooklyn to at least start the game better defensively and shoot well enough from the outside, which has been one of its strengths in this series, to take a lead into halftime.
Nuggets (+3.5) @ Spurs (207.5)
Pick: Under 207.5
Death, taxes and playoff unders. Two of the three games Friday night landed under the closing total and one of those two was Boston-Indiana which opened with a 116-point first half only to end with 200 total points in the game. In case you wondering, teams try on defense in the postseason, especially in the second half when the game is on the line. Denver’s season might as well be on the line in the afternoon on Saturday against the Spurs. While the Nuggets still have potentially two more home games in this series, the Spurs have been the better team in this series save for the fourth quarter of Game 2. I expect the Nuggets to play their most complete game of the series so far on Saturday. Will it be enough to win? I’m not sure. Is 3.5 points enough for me to still back Denver? Probably not. The biggest factor I expect to take away from Denver playing 48 good minutes would be stifling defense to stay in the game from start to finish. Defense usually isn’t a concern for a Gregg Popovich team, especially when they’re favored at home. The Spurs are 19-13 to the Under as a home favorite and I’m forecasting a bloodbath in this Game 4.
Bucks (-8.5) @ Pistons (216)
Pick: Under 216
Finally a Bucks-Pistons handicap! We haven’t purposely been avoiding this series, there just hasn’t been anything strong that would warrant a play yet. You’re playing with fire laying big point spreads in the postseason, but nobody wanted a piece of Detroit minus Blake Griffin and that’s hard to disagree with. Much how we’re expecting Brooklyn to be at least average on defense in a game it must win, the Pistons should ramp up their own defensive efforts as this series shifts to the Motor City. It might not get back to Milwaukee, but if it does, it’s going to take Detroit making one of the games on its home floor as ugly as possible. Think about those Pistons teams in the early 2000s and how well they defended. That might be what’s necessary for Detroit to nab a game here because the Pistons without Griffin are severely outclassed when it comes to top-end talent in this series. I don’t want any piece of a Detroit side in this series, but I am confident enough in its ability to slow the game down to play with Milwaukee in different chunks of time today. If those chunks are big enough, this game should land under 216.