Golf: Mike Kern tries not to Waste his pick in Phoenix
OK, so we found out that Tiger Woods – as many, including yours truly, suspected – would play decent in his 2019 PGA Tour debut last week at Torrey Pines but not nearly well enough. I don’t know what that means going forward for the longer haul, but if nothing else it’s a start. And golf of course is so much better when he’s out there. Ask the TV folks.
My choice, by the way, was Tony Finau, who finished 13th. Not horrible, but again not good enough. I did also throw out Gary Woodland among some other names to consider, and he came in ninth. So a little better. Hey, it’s a big field, you know.
Which brings us to this week’s West Coast stop, the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is where the fans tend to make a lot of noise in what for most will be a Super Bowl prelude. Not to mention color analyst Johnny Miller’s last event for NBC after many years of delivering opinions as only he can. At least in this sport. His place will be taken by Paul Azinger. Whatever you think of Miller, it won’t be the same.
Anyhow, back to the handicapping …
This will be Phil Mickelson’s 30th appearance. He’s the tournament’s all-time money winner, and a three-time champion. He tied for fifth last year. And he tied for second two weeks ago at the Desert Classic. He’s 20-1. And he’s 48. I think he can still win. But he is 48. Still, you could make worse bets.
Jon Rahm is the favorite, at 7-1. It seems like he’s been the fave the last month. And he plays well in the desert. But he hasn’t really come that close to lifting a trophy. He probably will be a factor, just because. And maybe he’s simply due to finally get it done one of these weeks. Right?
World No. 4 Justin Thomas is next, at 9-1. Any week that he gets it going he can overpower most of the field, so there is always that.
Then there’s Hideki Matsuyma, at 12-1. He won this thing in 2016 and ’17, but had to withdraw last year in the second round after suffering a thumb/wrist injury. After he’d opened with a 69. His scoring average at the Stadium Course in 17 rounds is 67.4. That’s hard to overlook. And he was third last week in San Diego.
Gary Woodland is your defending champ. And he’s 18-1. This will be his first time defending a title since 2014. As we said he’s coming off a ninth. He was runner-up in the Tournament of Champions in Maui almost a month ago.
For what it’s worth, I have Xander Schauffele, who’s also 18-1, in my yearlong pool that I have to fill in before the season starts. And I can only use a guy once. Sometimes that doesn’t work out so well, but I had Adam Hadwin two weeks ago and he lost by one. I only throw it out there.
Ricky Fowler, who we’re sort of still waiting on, has two seconds at Phoenix. But he’s trying out a new ball and struggled last week at Torrey Pines. He’s at 20-1
Another bloke at 20-1, Webb Simpson, has four top 10s in his last five starts (the other was a tie for 15th). He did no worse than a tie for 14th here from 2011-17.
Matt Kuchar has won twice this season. This is his first start since winning in Honolulu three weeks back. He’s had three top 10s here since 2009, in six starts.
And just in case, Chez Reavie is 40-1. He lost last year on the first hole of a playoff.
So there’s some interesting ways you can go. I would stay away from Rahm, just because I like getting longer odds. That probably means Rahm wins going away. You could always throw a few bucks on Phil Mickelson. I’m not big on betting defending champs, unless it was maybe Tiger in his prime, but Gary Woodland has been playing well. Any way you slice, it might be hard to pass on Matsuyama getting double-digit odds. Not many guys win a tourney three times in four years, but after last week it looks like he might be dialed in. So throw him and Webb Simpson into an exacta. Me, I’ll be rooting for Xander Schauffele. Because my pride is on the line.
Good luck out there. See you AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which people of my age still remember as the Bing Crosby. Imagine that.